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No. of Recommendations: 3
10% was my WAG (wild a$$ guess).

I have no idea, but my point is if you assign the likelyhood to the stock price, you can come up with a "fair value".

An example.

If you think there is a 50% chance that this company is worth 0, a 25% chance that the company is worth $5, and a 25% chance the company is for real and worth $10, you can do some quick math.

(0.50 * 0)+(0.25*5)+(0.25*10)= $3.50

That means the stock is "fairly valued" at $3.50, if you think there is a 50% chance the company is a complete fraud.

Personally, as GG has vetted the company, met with management, they are audited by a big 4, we have seen pictures of the product/facilities...etc....that there is a 10% chance of this company being a completed fraud, a 30% chance of the company being real, but the books are cooked in some way, and a 60% chance of the company being for real.

Under those circumstances, I think YONG is "fairly valued" around $7. Thus, todays ridiculously low price is a buying opportunity, even if you only consider it a lottery ticket.

Brian
SA Welcome Fool
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