Skip to main content
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
No. of Recommendations: 3
10% was my WAG (wild a$$ guess).

I have no idea, but my point is if you assign the likelyhood to the stock price, you can come up with a "fair value".

An example.

If you think there is a 50% chance that this company is worth 0, a 25% chance that the company is worth $5, and a 25% chance the company is for real and worth $10, you can do some quick math.

(0.50 * 0)+(0.25*5)+(0.25*10)= $3.50

That means the stock is "fairly valued" at $3.50, if you think there is a 50% chance the company is a complete fraud.

Personally, as GG has vetted the company, met with management, they are audited by a big 4, we have seen pictures of the product/facilities...etc....that there is a 10% chance of this company being a completed fraud, a 30% chance of the company being real, but the books are cooked in some way, and a 60% chance of the company being for real.

Under those circumstances, I think YONG is "fairly valued" around $7. Thus, todays ridiculously low price is a buying opportunity, even if you only consider it a lottery ticket.

SA Welcome Fool
Print the post  


What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.