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Number of Floridians *diagnosed* with COVID. How many undiagnosed?
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Number of Floridians *diagnosed* with COVID. How many undiagnosed?

Certainly a fair number. Our statewide testing positivity levels are pretty high - and in Miami, which is a major hotspot, they're higher still:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florid...

Positivity numbers close to 20% are a strong indicator that not enough testing is being conducted, and that there's pretty high numbers of undiagnosed folks out there.

Albaby
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If you test zero people you get zero cases

If you test millions you get millions of cases

Rise in cases is a reflection of rise in testing

If you keep testing you will keep adding new cases


You seem to be under the impression cases should be reducing or capped?

As usual, the left has turned a tragic pandemic into a political football, instead of taking all the information and how so many experts from the beginning had everything so wrong, this has all become a blame Trump thing, sad.

Remember Fauci himself early on was stating masks aren't needed, he also said its like the flu or the flu is worse, etc. etc.

Nobody got this right, but I don't blame our experts, I blame China and the W.H.O. who hid it, downplayed it, delayed reporting, made false claims, etc.
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instead of taking all the information and how so many experts from the beginning had everything so wrong, this has all become a blame Trump thing, sad.

That's because we've failed so badly in our response. The fact that many experts made mistakes in January and February and March - when this was still a largely unknown and novel disease - is understandable. The fact that we've made so many of our mistakes in the later months - April, May, and June - when we knew more about the disease and what should be done in response to it is inexcusable.

As I mentioned in the other thread, all of the other industrialized nations that got hit badly with the virus early on have managed to avoid the fate that has befallen the U.S. That's because they paid attention to what the experts had learned. So they locked down, devoted resources to increasing testing, adhered diligently to social distancing and mask-wearing, allocated sufficient resources to contact tracing, and a host of other measures. That way, when they started to come out of lockdown and re-open their economy and travel, they had the rate of infection trending downwards and had the resources in place to prevent uncontrolled spikes upward from resuming.

The U.S. did not. In much of the country, we skipped the step of actually having in place the things we needed to have in order to re-open without viral resurgence - waiting until infection rates were dropping, until adequate testing resources were in place so that people didn't need to wait hours at a time for tests, widespread adherence to social distancing and mask wearing, and the like. So we reopened without those things, and now we have massive increases in infections (and over the next few weeks, death).

So yeah - at the beginning of the year, everyone was still figuring out what this thing was and how to fight it. It's not the beginning of the year anymore, and we still have widespread failures in this country. And those failures aren't because of things that experts got wrong in the spring any more - they're caused by things that we have failed to do since then.

Albaby
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"Nobody got this right, but I don't blame our experts, I blame China and the W.H.O. who hid it, downplayed it, delayed reporting, made false claims, etc."

Lots of other countries got it right. Funny that you don't blame the guy who told you to inject bleach, apply UV light inside your body, who said the virus would magically disappear, that the virus was a hoax to make him look bad.....
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https://boards.fool.com/if-you-test-zero-people-you-get-zero...

I honestly think the above post is the single most inane thing ever placed on TMF.
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sgiz2: Rise in cases is a reflection of rise in testing


Nope. Demonstrably and statistically false.

Between May 25 and June 23, Arizona increased testing by 175% but positive cases jumped by 698%.

Between May 25 and June 23, Texas increased testing by 98% but positive cases jumped by 273%.

Between May 25 and June 20, Florida decreased testing by 22% but positive cases jumped by 341%.

Between May 25 and June 23, New York increased testing by 50% but positive cases fell by 60%.

Between May 25 and June 20, Illinois increased testing by 3% but positive cases fell by 72%.

Between May 25 and June 23, Indiana increased testing by 48% but positive cases fell by 40%.

#TrumpVirus


https://www.propublica.org/article/state-coronavirus-data-do...
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the W.H.O. who hid it, downplayed it, delayed reporting, made false claims, etc.

That's a weird way to spell "Trump."
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If you keep testing you will keep adding new cases

Not necessarily. If no one had COVID then each test you did would no more cases. On the other hand, if every one had it, every test would be a new case
You got that otherwise you are just gonna have to hold onto your seat and trust me on this.
So what is important is the positivity rate, this is the number of positive test divided by the total tests done in any statistically significant period. Its going to be a number between 0.000 and 1.000 which corresponds to "nobody has it" to "everyone has it" like the case above.
Now this next bit is realy gonna blow your sox off
If the positivity rate is increasing it generally means that more people are getting the disease. I say generally because more sick people could be showing up on purpose as part of some yet to defined conspiracy.

This completes your first home school lesson in Math and Critical Thinking. Homework for today is to follow up on this hypothesis above with example from your own state.

1) Go to the John Hopkins COVID site and find your state in the picture.
The states are colored Red Yellow and Green. Which do you think is good and bad?
What color is your state?
2) Find how many hospital beds are available in your state.
Is the trend going up or down, Is this bad or good?
3) Find out who your governor is and read what he has said recently
Does his words about trends match what you have discovered about trends yourself?
If they are different, why do you think this is so?
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Won't matter how many times the facts are stated. The Trump faithful cling to the a of alternative facts presented by their dear leader.
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If you test zero people you get zero cases

If you test millions you get millions of cases

Rise in cases is a reflection of rise in testing

If you keep testing you will keep adding new cases



Huh?

Say there are 1,000 people and 100 of them have Covid-19:

If you test no one, you still have 100 cases. Your just ignorant about them.

If you test 500 people and 50 of them test positive, you still have 100 cases, but you have more information about how many cases you have.

If you test entire population of 1,000, you still have 100 cases, but now you have complete information about the number of cases.

Testing does NOT change the number of cases you have, just how many you know about.

Generally speaking, the less information you have the worse off you are and the more information you you have the better off you are.

Testing gives you more information, not cases. It’s just math and science.

Also, generally speaking, if someone just repeats what Trump says they’re going to sound as stupid as Trump does.

AW
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Nope. Demonstrably and statistically false.
https://www.propublica.org/article/state-coronavirus-data-do......


Excellent homework syzygy, glad to see you are putting in the hours
From these excellent graphs we see that the number of tests really is not a direct influence on the positivity rate, but the rate itself mirrors the disease ebb and flow

In New York Indiana and Illinois the positivist rate is going down as you would expect in States that had a bad first wave and not seem to have some control. Whereas in Arizona Texas and Florida the positivity rate is going up regardless of the number of test (Note is Florida is actually doing less testing)

That great little graph at the end of the paper shows a great trend of positivist for the country with the numbers falling below 4%. Base on this several governors decided to go full gung ho with reopening and now we have
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
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If you test zero people you get zero cases

If you test millions you get millions of cases

Rise in cases is a reflection of rise in testing

If you keep testing you will keep adding new cases


NO. Let me help. If you test millions you will find out how many people are infected. Testing has no impact on how many are infected. Repeat: no impact. If "cases" are infected people, the that number is UNCHANGED by testing. What testing does is tell us how many, when, and where they are. CRUCIAL information if we ever want to get ahead of this pandemic.
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If you test millions you get millions of cases

Or, more likely you get a more complete picture of how many people have the virus.
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As my wife said -- "By Trump logic -- I guess if a women does not do a pregnancy test, she will not ever be pregnant."
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If you test zero people you get zero cases...

I'm sure that if you think for a moment about what you wrote, you'll see that it's nonsense. Look, Trump is a con artist. He'll say or do anything if it will benefit him. If it means killing you or someone you love as a result, he doesn't care. Don't let him con you. It's not too late.
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If you test zero people you get zero cases

If you test millions you get millions of cases

Rise in cases is a reflection of rise in testing

If you keep testing you will keep adding new cases


It's a grand new, brand new world we live in.

No pregnancy tests = no unwanted pregnancies, no abortions

No stress tests = no heart trouble and no heart attacks

No mammograms = No more breast cancer

No blood/urine tests = no prostrate cancer.

Etc., etc., etc.

The best of all possible worlds -- Candide would be delighted.
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Ya could sort immigration and illegal aliens the same way
Don't test and you don't need a wall
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If you test zero people you get zero cases

If you test millions you get millions of cases

Rise in cases is a reflection of rise in testing

If you keep testing you will keep adding new cases


--------------------------------------
Mathematical ignorance and inumeracy are primary characteristics of Trump supporters. Here is is displayed dramatically.

If you are testing a population adequately to understand the total impact on the population, then the positive test rate and the total population number is all you need to know. A 1% positive test rate in a population of 100,000 implies that there are a total of 1000 cases. . . pretty simple.

If you test 100 people with a 1% positive rate, you should see approximately 1 positive case. But if you test 100 people and find 1 positive case, then test 200 people and find 40 positive cases, then your initial 100 test sample was obviously not enough for you to draw valid conclusions about the population. And you can't claim that the only reason your case count went up is because you tested more. Your case count went up because your initial test sample of 100 had not tested enough to understand the problem across the entire population.

How do you know if you are testing an adequate number? The positive test rate should remain constant, regardless of sample size, over time. If it the positive test rate in increasing, you aren't sampling enough.
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if you keep testing you will keep adding new cases...


um, unless there are no more cases...

Bill
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MisterFungi:

You have succinctly stated the facts. This con man has been responsible for countless numbers of very sick, suffering people and tens of thousands of American deaths, due to his incompetence and selfish actions.

Please, folks, vote this con man out in November, and let him take his lapdog(s) with him.

Vermonter
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The positive test rate should remain constant,

Unless the infection rate itself is changing.
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Unless the infection rate itself is changing.

Of course, which also refutes the argument that the increasing case numbers is a reflection only of increased testing.
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