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2 things that seem like muddy this topic a little is that you have to be careful when weighing the options and making projections because contributing X amount pre-tax is not thr same amount post-tax (e.g you can't compare $500/month in a Roth vs $500/ month in traditional), but more importantly, what you save now in a traditional is the marginal tax rate, and when you withdraw, it is taxed at the effective tax rate - that will of course have some unpredictability and will be influenced by other variables, but i assume will be less.

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