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2009 was the bottom of the Great Recession. Real GDP growth has been about 2% a year since then. So I think a 6% increase in emissions since then would be a good guess.

Perhaps not. U.S. emissions declined in 2011, by about 1.7%:,27216,en...

Partially that's due to a mild winder in 2011, but it's also the result of swapping out natural gas for coal in electrical generation and increased fuel efficiency of the motor vehicle fleet. Both of those latter two trends are continuing, so we might continue to see overall declines in U.S. emissions. According to the IEA, since 2006 total U.S. emissions have fallen by more than 7.7% (the largest decrease of any country or region), due partially to these factors - and real GDP is actually up a few points over that time period. So we might continue to see reduced emissions (or more modest increases) even with GDP growth.

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