No. of Recommendations: 8
Awrighty, it is time for the 2013 METAR Stock picking contest.

Before I get to the rules, I want to say I spent some time thinking about the contest, number of picks,
weighting picks, etc. I asked for input on the weighting and some responded. I liked the
way the 2012 allowed both a safe bet and a longshot. That said, I seriously entertained the thought
of a third pick to offset the weighting, but realized that would likely not work too well. My
feeling is it would encourage contestants to lean towards the longshot side on the third pick.

So back to two picks. What about the multiplier? For those who want an equal weighting i.e.
multiplier of 1, ... well, here's a "1". But, I'm not done yet. This is METAR, or a board that
focuses on Macro Economics. Of course, this is an irrational debate, so to do that justice I
decided to add the square root of pi, plus .001. So the multiplier for the 2013 METAR contest
is 1 + 1.772 + 0.001 = 2.773. Those who wanted "1" got part of their wish, those who want a
multiplier got a multiplier, and the .001 is ... well, because I said so. So the multiplier is 2.773,
just a nice irrational multiplier for this contest :)

Onto the rules for the 2013 METAR Contest
1. Each contestant will be allowed two picks- a safe pick and a longshot pick.
2. The contest starts on Jan 2, 2013, since the first day of 2013 is a holiday. Contest
picks should be in prior to Jan 2, 2013.
3. The contest ends at close of market on Dec 31, 2013.
4. Return of a pick is measured as the price gain, plus any dividend payouts and spinoffs announced
during 2013.
5. The safe pick will get a multiplier of 2.773 when calculating return.
6. Total return = longshot pick return + 2.773 * safe pick return. The winner of the 2013 METAR
Contest Winner will be the player with the highest Total return.
7. Since this is a METAR contest, it would be nice if each contestant makes a METAR angle or justification
for at least one of their picks. Nothing elaborate, no book reports. Just a sentence or two,
a paragraph, if one feels ambitious.
8. There is no lock on picks i.e. more than one player can pick a specific stock, ETF or Index.
9. Foreign stocks are allowed. However, if the pick is traded on a foreign stock exchange,
the player needs to provide the ticker symbol on that exchange, and a way to validate the data
e.g. a Tokyo-listed or Hong Kong-listed idea is usually a four or five digit number.
10. No changes to either pick once the contest starts. I will try to provide a contest update
at least quarterly (four times), maybe more frequently.
11. Per contestant, the safe pick cannot be the same as the longshot pick (no double-down)


Please submit your picks as a reply to this thread (just easier to track). Any questions,
also to this thread.

Good luck to all participants!

HoHum
Benevolent Dictator of 2013 METAR Contest
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