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No. of Recommendations: 5
Porting this over from Nostalgia For Infinity:

1/29 up 10% (including dividends)
2/26 up 24%
3/31 up 44%
4/30 up 48.5%
5/28 up 53%
6/30 up 55%
7/30 up 53%
8/30 up 56.4%
9/30 up 56.4% (including dividends that hit today)


Hmmm.
If I was Saul, I could have taken my numbers from the weekend, which was ATH around 59% YTD. Oh well.

Since my port is Cash + SPG + friends, a big move up or down by SPG tends to be impactful.
SPG down quite a bit today, but my dividends also hit my account to offset some of that.
The "other guys" of GLBE, ONDS, VRAR, LSPD, and CCHWF were mixed but ultimately flat overall today.
Cash was amazingly flat.

Cash 50%
SPG 30%
GLBE 10%
then the rest of the stocks plus a crappy mandatory mutual fund.

Curious to see how October goes, since September played it cool until the very last week here...will the selling pressure continue or is it time for a Q4 blowoff top kind of run?

Covid cases peaked around Sept 1st, but no one seems to be talking about that.
So I think there could be a case for some resumption of a Re-Open trade that SPG participates in...along with maybe oil/gas given what looks like an energy crunch. Supply chain crunches could both help/hurt brick retail, as if you can't find it online, you may go to stores to buy what you can for xmas gifts, etc... We will see how it all plays out!

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 8
1/29 up 10% (including dividends)
2/26 up 24%
3/31 up 44%
4/30 up 48.5%
5/28 up 53%
6/30 up 55%
7/30 up 53%
8/30 up 56.4%
9/30 up 56.4%
10/29 up 55% (think high was 62%)

Holy boring kack of progress, Batman!

Big week of earnings coming up starting w SPG on Monday.

I think earnings for my stocks will be fundamentally sound across the board. Taper in November should already be baked in. Will covid wane further just to come back in Winter?

My guess is we have a decent reprieve from covid for Nov and Dec. January could be interesting.

So my hope is to finish year strong and be well-positioned for 40% type growth in 2022.


SPG - cruising. ERshould be solid. Dividends should be raised. Holidays should lead to great q4, but i may be out of most of the atock by time they report in Feb 2022. I dont know how much higher stock will go from here. Would like it to just hold current gains thru EOY.

GLBE - i accumulated too early, in hindsight. Cost basis closer to 62 when it could have been 54. Oh well. I like this as a 2022/2023 hold, if they continue to execute. Gains may be modest in 2022 compared to past 2 years, but believe they could be a $27-40b mkt cap near end of 2023 or 2024.

UPST. Didnt commit early and often enough. Unsure what stock upside can be, but will ride it ala Saul until growth slows.

LSPD. Easier said than done to expand lines of business, but they have all the pieces and parts. Both a Reopen and ecommerce play. Expect short term easy gains thanks to short report. Will ride as long as ERs are good.

ONDS is allabout the big contract wins. Q3 ER may be a dud as we wait on wins. Allocation is still low, so may add if goes back under 8.

CCHWF. Bought too soon here. If you want a pot stock...feels like now is time to buy. Eventually pot atocks will be all the rage again. Just announved branding with Pitbull and Mike Tyson, too. They need to change company name and probably will.

Watching: TTD, DOCN, NET, DDOG, and so many more.


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 6
1/29 up 10% (including dividends)
2/26 up 24%
3/31 up 44%
4/30 up 48.5%
5/28 up 53%
6/30 up 55%
7/30 up 53%
8/30 up 56.4%
9/30 up 56.4%
10/29 up 55% (think high was 62%)


A tale of two portfolios. At the end of May when you were +53%, I was even for the year, +0%. For June through October you are up 2%, and mine is up 37.2%. Your high was +62%, mine was +42%. In October I had visions of finishing the year up 50% and perhaps even catching up with you. I we had switched portfolios at end of May we could be up either 2% or 81% for the year.

The difference now is that you have a plan, however fluid. I am pretty much rudderless. I do have cash, 22.5%, but that is largely an illusion. I have this mechanical "cash cushion" which is current account value minus a 4-month moving average. That is about 8-1/2% and my required distribution is 5.3%. Those two round to 14% which leaves 8 to 9%. That was a factor in my selling LSPD and TWLO.

Rounding off percentages, I have 20% UPST and like you I intend to ride this one until the growth slows, if it does. DDOG, which you are watching is 12% and that's a hold same as UPST. SPG and OKE are my "good or better than cash" at 2% and 10%. SE is 9% but it is short leash. I worry about its e-commerce both from a supply chain concern and the fact that its e-commerce platform sucks. They are first choice but I have never purchased anything from them because the selection is poor and their web page is stone age, clunky and ugly. That leaves CRWD (which must be in your "and so many more") at 6%, NET that you are watching which is 4% and SWAV at 3%. SWAV is for bragging rights if it does better than the Saul average or for crawling under a rock if it tanks. The rest are dogs and cats that are interesting or worth watching for some reason and they are not going move any needles.

Hang loose,

KC
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No. of Recommendations: 3
1/29 up 10% (including dividends)
2/26 up 24%
3/31 up 44%
4/30 up 48.5%
5/28 up 53%
6/30 up 55%
7/30 up 53%
8/30 up 56.4%
9/30 up 56.4%
10/29 up 55%
11/30 up 78%

Wowsa...nice bounce after treading sideways since May.

Negatives: upst and lspd. Onds has been light drag, too.

Offset by Positives: SPG and GLBE. Both were positive moves post-ER, and GLBE dipped and allowed me to basically benefit twice from about $50-65. I banked profits on all SPG and half the GLBE.

Plan to buy more GLBE eventually, but have a core position still.

I like a lot of stocks, but will see if we cant get more pain before buying a dip.

I would happily end year here if I could. December will be about positioning for 2022.


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 4
1/29 up 10% (including dividends)
2/26 up 24%
3/31 up 44%
4/30 up 48.5%
5/28 up 53%
6/30 up 55%
7/30 up 53%
8/30 up 56.4%
9/30 up 56.4%
10/29 up 55%
11/30 up 78%
12/31 up 79%

——

May have more to say later.
Very happy w results.

Currently over 95% cash.

Happy new year all!


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Incredibly impressive. Nice work Dreamer with 95% cash too.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Nice!

My 2021 exploits are well documented here, so no need to pull off the scab. 2021 went out with death rattle whimper, right down to the last hour (I think it did, my internet went out at 8 a.m. New York time). So 2021 was both memorable and forgettable. Ended up 25.8% below ATH, which is the forgettable part.

I don't have a 2022 plan, other than to take my RMD ASAP and spend it foolishly. That is what one can do at age 80/81. I can do that while reveling in the fact that Uncle Sam was denied 24% of 25.8% of 5.35% of my IRA. I'll add that 0.33% to my UPST at a time TBD as my tea leaves and turn it into a double. Yes, time for a couple of polls on donuts versus productivity software stocks.

KC, who diagnosed an intermittent wiring problem bright and early this morning--hard to locate.... sigh.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
don't have a 2022 plan, other than to take my RMD ASAP and spend it foolishly. That is what one can do at age 80/81

—-

KC,
2020 and 2021 were real pieces of work!

2022 will be a good year.
I expect great things on 2/2/22 and 2/22/22 because the first adds up to 8 and the 2nd to 10, which the product is of course equal to 80.

Therefore all great things should occur in the 80s.

Happy new year!
Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 12
Saul
2018 71.4%
2019 28.4%
2020 233.3%
2021 39.6%
$100 has become $1024


Dreamer
2018 40%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%
$100 has become $713

Moral of the story? Always ignore stock multiples/valuations in year 1 of a pandemic and don't LTBH.
(yes, sarcasm. sorry - but anyone who thought 200%+ was not an outlier was either a newbie investor or deluding themselves)

You wouldn't have wanted to hold ZM thru 2021, and there was no point in owning CRWD in 2021.
You also wouldn't have wanted to hold ad-tech (TTD, MGNI, ROKU) or any stay-at-home 2020 winners like PINS or PTON in 2021.

What did work in 2021? With mainly exceptions of DDOG, NET, and ZS (kudos to Saul on all of those) the real tech winners were Big Tech like MSFT, AAPL (can we stop calling them tech?), TSLA, and meme stocks along with crypto.

How will Saul do in 2022? My guess is "very well". But I think DDOG and NET may be the 2022 versions of CRWD, in that the companies will continue to execute but may suffer under the weight of their still-expensive mkt caps. I think MNDY can/will probably go on a run, but I would pocket any big gains, as I don't see the mission-critical nature of their offerings. S may do well, and could easily double when you "compare" them to the still-sizable CRWD mkt cap, but that is misleading, as CRWD probably is still overvalued. But until market vomits due to rate hikes/Fed, S may be an early 2022 momentum winner. Especially if we get a decent-sized security news-worthy incident to hit, which is possible at any time. UPST could go on another run. Yes, early in their TAM. Can auto ramp during supply constraints enough to offset any slowdown in personal loans? Because I kind of feel like they may hit a big slowdown in personal loans if they don't start attaching to major banks. But UPST could be another early/big winner in 1H 2022. Saul tends to ride out any corrections vs trading or raising cash in advance, so I think he sees big swings in 2022 as he did in 2021. Just a guess would be a good Q1, probably either Q2 or Q3 goes to hell thanks to Fed, and then resulting bounce out of a measurable dip leads to a great Q4. My other prediction is that we see tons of angst from the 2020-get/got-rich-quick crowd that doesn't have Saul's stomach and experience, and who option/leverage themselves into oblivion during any big market tank. They will be fed up as 2021 frustrated and confused them, and they will likely rebel and question everything for a few months.

Why do I care? I don't really...just always find human psychology to be interesting to watch play out.

Saul's method works if you can be intellectually honest about it, and have a stomach for volatility. Concept is to invest in growth rates essentially, and that market will allow a premium on stock price/multiple while growth is high/flat or high/accelerating, but that you have to pull the rip-cord if growth trends down before market punishes the stock accordingly. It is not TA, so it is not momentum in that sense, but it is momentum (imo) based not on company's valuation or long-term prospects, but about their point in the S-curve. This is a variation of the Gorilla Game investing strategies from late 1990s, whether intentional or not.

It pays off huge coming out of market lows. One knock on Saul is he doesn't typically pocket fast gains. So when you look at his smaller 2019 performance, you need to understand he was up about 85% in middle of the 2019 Summer, coming out of the Fed-caused Dec 2018 lows. Likewise, he started off 2020 fairly well (pre-covid) due to late 2019 growth stock correction. If we are honest, if there was no pandemic, I think 2020 would have played out similar to 2019 for Saul. There would have been no major catalyst for Zoom to go crazy, there probably would have been a mid-2020 growth stock lull, before finishing the year strong. Trump probably gets reelected and market probably would have been fine with that.

I don't know if you can come up with any real meaningful trend analysis or subsequent predictions for 2022 based on previous 4 years, which is a relatively short time-period all things considering.

Covid has lingered and been a nuisance in defining "normal" for far longer than I would have predicted. Part of me thinks there is a re-open trade to still be had, but the markets took all the Fed free money and went crazy, nullifying some of that upside already. So a general market collapse seems plausible, especially tied to at least a semblance of covid threat ending.

Why? The Fed wants to raise rates. Covid keeps them at bay. They already projected raising rates while in midst of covid-impacted world. Imagine if covid was gone? They likely feel we are strong enough to get out of bed, put our big-boy pants on, and get back to a more normalized rate world. In that scenario, I see a general re-rating of the entire market. Everything takes a hit. As typical in a big downturn, most things are oversold. Then it becomes of matter of what the "new normal" is in regards to stock multiples in a raised-rate environment. That is why/where I see something like DDOG getting hurt. No question a great company, but also no question they are richly valued. In 2 Q's, it is totally possible DDOG has a slight softening of growth rates from perfect to just "very good" and when combined with a possible market dump, they could get flattened hard.

Another view is that covid lingers...and lingers...and I see that as ugly too. Society probably won't put up with too much more. I am not talking about civil war or revolutions, at least not in the US. Citizens will do the scariest thing imaginable to politicians: they will vote. And if the early/mid-year polls says they are ready to vote angry and are fed up with lockdown/masks, watch how quickly the dems pivot to reopening policies. Can companies benefit from WFH savings? Sure. Are employees more productive and happier? Uh. Hmmm. Mixed, at best, imo. A removal of covid ensures companies can find the true balance of WFH and back-to-office and back-to-restaurants and back-to-brick and mortar. That is where the best productivity lies, I believe. Setting up possibly for a huge 2023 for the economy.

We just have to get thru the landmines of 2022 first. Then maybe, just maybe, we can get back to investing based on a company's fundamentals, their TA analysis, their growth trends, without this looming backdrop of an uneven or uncertain macro environment overly pulling the market this way and that.

Welcome to 2022, and happy new year!


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Dreamer
2018 40%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%
$100 has become $713

---

I constantly do this in my head, but 2018 was 46% not 40%. Just easier for me to remember "60/40" for 2019 and 2018.
So technically my $100 has become $744.

2018 was up over 100% around Summer months, thanks to tons of post-ER pops and also riding TTD and a short-lived rocket named Iqiyi or IQ. Trump really amped up the China/tariff stuff mid-2018, and China stocks have largely been a bust since. (remember BZUN???) While I did sell IQ for good profits, I did not sell quickly enough when it went from about $15 to $45 in 6 weeks (shades of UPST in 2021) and when combined with the horrific Dec 2018 drawdown thanks to Fed raising rates, I was well off my highs. When this repeated, to a lesser degree, from me being up near 90% in mid-2019 (ESTC early run, combined with TTD blast-off in late July) and then we had a pretty solid rotation out of growth in the Oct-Nov timeframe.

Those two rotations, leading into 2020, is what caused me to become more sensitive to giving back gains, which hurt me in 2020 (didn't trust the oversized rally from March bottom) but helped me in 2021 (I wasn't hurt by March or May drawdowns and I was up or flat almost every month).

I think my head is still in the 2021 mindset of hoarding gains a bit.
2022 could turn out to be a crap year or my greatest year ever...nothing would surprise me. But right now, I am more apprehensive at the start of this year than I can remember previously.

Nasdaq up yet growth is down today to start the trading year. An omen or just an early dip? Start of a blowoff top for the megacaps or just a post-holiday weird trading day with Tesla up huge along with...Discovery?? Ad-tech seems up a bit. Very mixed messages.

Good luck out there all!

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 2
My other prediction is that we see tons of angst from the 2020-get/got-rich-quick crowd that doesn't have Saul's stomach and experience, and who option/leverage themselves into oblivion during any big market tank. They will be fed up as 2021 frustrated and confused them, and they will likely rebel and question everything for a few months.

——

That didn’t take long.
Can sense the panic and valuation/multiple justifications thru the screen already.

More pain today?

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
More pain today?

'twould appear so. Most everything down 2% premarket. SE down almost 4. I think I'll put in the UPST limit at $119. Nothing magical about that price. Not sure if I will fund that by selling some SaaS.

Bert is in his usual GARP mode. I think his missive was to subscribers so can't disclose here, but he is promoting some of his usual suspects. Well, sort of a lukewarm promotion. He started by saying he doesn't (like to) do January picks for the new year, but he gets lots of questions, so....

Half an hour 'til the bell.

KC
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No. of Recommendations: 1
My other prediction is that we see tons of angst from the 2020-get/got-rich-quick crowd that doesn't have Saul's stomach and experience, and who option/leverage themselves into oblivion during any big market tank. They will be fed up as 2021 frustrated and confused them, and they will likely rebel and question everything for a few months.


---

Nostradreamer says: "this continues to be on track."

And I think it still has the potential (key word) to get worse, given some of the multiples remain outliers. And you can tell me the companies justify the valuation all you want, but ZM and UPST and CRWD and everyone else that inevitably has faltered from nosebleed valuations seems to inform us that DDOG, NET, ZS, and perhaps SNOW and MNDY, have further to fall.

What does this mean for something like GLBE? Ugh. Nothing good. When they all fall, they all get squashed. And it always seems to get squashed more than anyone thought possible, before it finally gets better. GLBE will be solid, but unlike Saul clones, I do care about entry price. If the company executes great over next 2 years, I will still be happier if I get in at $30-35 rather than $45-50, as the latter means I miss out on 40-50% gains in the short-term. Gah.

2020 was a mirage folks. Pandemic skewed it all. Many outperformed Saul in 2019. Many outperformed him in 2021. His macro-be-damned attitude both greatly benefitted him and his followers in 2020, but also held him back from higher gains in the year before and after. So the question I always have is: what would have happened, if there was no pandemic? Impossible to know, but we can assume all the illogical stock moves like ZM and PTON and ROKU and various ecommerce plays or adtech plays would not have skyrocketed. How is MGNI working out for ya?

ROKU back to 2019 levels.
ZM back to March 2020 pop levels. (that is nutso, considering, you know...pandemic that followed)
PTON...omg. Others: FSLY, STEM, OLO, PLTR, PATH, TWLO, SE...all 50% minimum off their 52 wk high.

Good ol' ESTC at July 2019 levels. Picked a bad week to make a CEO change...wtf were they thinking?

I was looking at DISCK/T at beginning of year...man oh man. Should have acted on that one as a short-term better-than-cash option.

PTLO should be a good one. Question is how much lower can/will it go first.


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 1
!!!!

ROKU back to 2019 levels.

I received an alert message from E*Trade advising that ROKU had hit my target level. When I set that and why, I have no idea, other than I had sold and must have considered that a good price.

Other than that, NET was a dog feces in the punchbowl. A while back, over at Saul's, there was head scratching over why it kept going up. DW and I both have some. DW is now down 7.8% for the year and has 32% cash, I have 28%. But, I don't even think about YTD. My last 3 months are -10.5, -13.2%, and -17.2%. That's EACH. I could at least use some deceleration of the rate of drop.

Anywho, I bought a little UPST in the after hours. Holding north of 20% now.

I am above my low on this cycle (this IS a cycle, isn't it?). I need +63% from here for a new ATH. Actually, more because I f'd up my distribution request and that hasn't come out of the IRA yet.

KC
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No. of Recommendations: 1
HI Dreamer,

i am not sure why you comparing high growth with mid,low growth stocks and assuming high growth stocks forward revenue multiples fall as much as mid/low growth multiples.

i can see double difference maintained between low to mid and mid to high growth since 2014 onwards.
ex:
https://cloudindex.bvp.com/ (checked in this website)

2014 - low growth (4x) & mid growth (6x) high growth (8x)
2015 to 2019 - almost same level multiplex
2019 - low growth (6x) & mid growth (8x) high growth (12x)
2020 - low growth (6x) & mid growth (12x) high growth (19x)
2021 - low growth (8x) & mid growth (15x) high growth (24x)
2022(yesterday) - low growth (7x) & mid growth (9x) high growth (15x)

clear difference there between high growth and others consistently in diff macro environment.

Now high growth exactly matched with 2019 high and 2021 may low.

greater than 50% growths multiple now combined at 25x.

historically worst it can go around 15x.

But now low interest rates and cash flow our high growth stocks situation i think worst it can go 20x.

you can see chart here.
https://www.publiccomps.com/tickers?items=High+Growth+SaaS

my guess basing on history worst i think we might get one more leg down mostly 15 to 20% down from current levels for saul stocks(mndy, ddog, bill snow, zs, ampl, s)


today exactly it touched multiple last week leg down multiple and made double bottom today.

so we might take this as bottom basing last saul comment and it might testing last leg down.

if it does not hold next week monday or tuesday we might get another 15% down and i am hoping that's last leg down.


one small question:
why you are not considering EV stocks like lucid, rivn? do not you think they are good investments right now?
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Hi VENUMADI.

I'm not Dreamer. I like the way you're organizing the stocks and looking at multiples.

I think your data doesn't go back far enough, as we haven't had the current level of inflation in many years. Inflation and interest rate expectations are certainly playing a role in today's market environment.

I hope Dreamer and other board denizens address your EV question. I only own one (not naming names; you'll have to view my profile if you're curious), and I'm happy to hold it.


Fool on!
Thanks, and best wishes,
TMFDatabaseBob
Advanced Research Fool (formerly called “Maintenance Coverage Fool”)
See what a "Coverage Fool" does here: http://www.fool.com/community/community-team.aspx
See my holdings here: http://my.fool.com/profile/TMFDatabasebob/info.aspx
Peace on Earth

Please note: I am not a member of any newsletter team. My opinions are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the TMF advisers. I am not an investment professional, merely an investor.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
greater than 50% growths multiple now combined at 25x.

historically worst it can go around 15x.

But now low interest rates and cash flow our high growth stocks situation i think worst it can go 20x.

you can see chart here.
https://www.publiccomps.com/tickers?items=High+Growth+SaaS

my guess basing on history worst i think we might get one more leg down mostly 15 to 20% down from current levels for saul stocks(mndy, ddog, bill snow, zs, ampl, s)


---

my opinion: lumping cohorts into a group is helpful for trends, but not individual stock trading. there is still a disconnect with ddog net snow zs bill and a few others. They can correct more as a result.

I am also not saying glbe and ddog need same multiple. I am talking about where they are now, where they could be, and mkt cap is also a function of acquisition floor (meaning someone could buy GLBE for $10b, but who is buying DDOG for $75b?). This is why larger mkt caps tend to have lower P/S values (see amzn). ZM accomplished everything hyper-growth could dream of, and has 2-3x the revenues now of DDOG, yet their multiples are so vastly different. the fallacy there is that there is no guarantee (nor real liklihood) that ddog growing anywhere this fast when they hit $4b runrate like ZM. So it is an S-curve-chasing momentum trading game.

Finally...the idea that you invest in a company and don't worry about the stock price is beyond ludicrous.

No interest in EV stocks. I owned TSLA years ago and made money. Right now, their stock price makes no sense. No reason it won't be easier for VW or Ford or others to transition to EV vs investing in EV startups to take over car sales. The transition to EV's will still take many many years:
https://carbuzz.com/news/new-study-reveals-most-americans-do...

good luck,
Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 7
expanded to included 2022 YTD (just a guess based on Saul allocations)

Saul
2018 71.4%
2019 28.4%
2020 233.3%
2021 39.6%
2022 YTD -24%
$100 has become $778


Dreamer
2018 46%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%
2022 YTD -8%
$100 has become $677

Gap is closing.
Because Saul stays fully invested, if all growth bounces, he would gain more traction quicker. Question is if stocks with still-high P/S, compared to other growth stocks, like DDOG, S, ZS, NET, and MNDY, continue to deflate more than the rest in a reversion to the mean.

Also note that Saul outperformed me in the 2 years that had massive drops (late 2018 and of course early 2020). Again, that is largely a product of being all-in, so that when bounce does hit, he gains fast and furious.

It looks like 2018 Nasdaq slumped from about Aug 1st thru Dec 1st, or 4 months. By Jan 1st, it regained about half the losses from Aug.

Good news: we probably bounce back too.
Bad news: we are only 1.5 months into correction.

I maintain everything continues to move faster. This is via increased access to info/data/tools, AI, algos, etc etc... We can correct faster, we can bleed faster, and we can heal faster.

But, still...1.5 months doesn't quite feel like puking in your mouth bad yet. But I am only down 8% from having been largely in cash throughout past month or so, which may mean I am not feeling the angst as much as I would otherwise.

I still want to sell into strength, is what I am saying. Just don't feel like this was capitulation yet. Hoping for relief rally as I didn't mean to deploy as much cash as I did today for the long-term yet.

Everything was bid up, of course, in retrospect. I feel like I am driving thru graveyards when I coast thru the watchlist. SOFI back to $12, OLO at $16, ONDS under $5 and looking like an eventual penny stock, GLBE broke $40, DOCN hit mid-50s, MNDY should be sub-200 shortly. ROKU at 2019 levels.
Only a matter of time before DDOG is under $100 again, imo.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
which may mean I am not feeling the angst as much as I would otherwise

May? Dude, I guarandamntee you that you aren't feeling the angst.... :)

But, Hey! 3 minutes into the session and I am up 1.17%. Poll!: Trade the "rally"?

Just kidding. I'm just not used to seeing green (other than when contemplating Dreamer's pivot to cash).

10 minutes in and still up 1.17% Has Hell frozen over???

30-minutes up 2%, I'm outa here. G'night.

KC, nervous about UPST
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No. of Recommendations: 7
Saul
2018 71.4%
2019 28.4%
2020 233.3%
2021 39.6%
$100 has become $1024
2022 -26.6
$100 has become $713


Dreamer
2018 46%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%
$100 has become $744
2022 -1.8%
$100 has become $730


2022 has a long way to go.

Unreliable crystal ball says Saul surges ahead, being fully invested, but then market goes even lower and i go all in then.

At that point, the differences in stock choices kick in. Although i would own most of his stocks if i liked entry prices.

Barring some crazy new black swans, i hope we both have good years once market finally bottoms.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Saul
2018 71.4%
2019 28.4%
2020 233.3%
2021 39.6%
$100 has become $1024
2022 -26.6
$100 has become $713


Dreamer
2018 46%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%
$100 has become $744
2022 -1.8%
$100 has become $730


We are always tempted to compare ourselves to other investors. Of course, if what I'm doing is not good enough, I might as well copy the others. But in your case, you are clearly doing very well, so I don't think Saul's results are that important. You do you and that is fine.

We are all different human beings with different ways to approach investing. I can't follow most Saul's picks because I'm too cheap. But if I get bad results, I'll reconsider my approach.

Anyway, I enjoy reading what you post here, it's one more opinion that I value.
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