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In another post (#53002) I said:
I'm feeling lucky today. I swear I wasn't trying when I nailed the 3rd one below. So, to continue my experiments with prognostication, I'm sharing the number that is speaking to me right now... 19... or is it 23? Hmmm... It seems I like primes too much.

Revenues:1.57B
Earnings:83MM
MyLastPost:53k


Sooo, I guess it went unnoticed (no recs, no replies in 2 weeks). Perhaps it was too cryptic? In any case, I'd hate to say "I told you so" on Wednesday just because no one noticed.

BTW, after researching the shares outstanding estimate (~350MM), I'll go with the higher number: 83/353=23 (ah, stop it with the primes already!). In case anyone still doesn't get it, that's 23¢ net earnings per share (excluding special items). Any comments?

Deagol
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No. of Recommendations: 1
BTW, after researching the shares outstanding estimate (~350MM), I'll go with the higher number: 83/353=23 (ah, stop it with the primes already!). In case anyone still doesn't get it, that's 23¢ net earnings per share (excluding special items). Any comments?



I am hoping that you are right. It would still be a huge YOY decrease, but you take what you can get.

I was mainly wondering how you achieved your numbers. What kinds of sales were factored in? How do you think the iMac, iBook, and TiPB lines are going to do? My gut tells me apple is going to do well, but I find the variables to be all over the place.

James
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No. of Recommendations: 4
I was mainly wondering how you achieved your numbers. What kinds of sales were factored in? How do you think the iMac, iBook, and TiPB lines are going to do? My gut tells me apple is going to do well, but I find the variables to be all over the place.

Yes, that's true. Other than a sure slowdown in desktops, you could do almost anything about product mix. Try to include OSX, the stores, PowerSchool, and an uptick in Flat Panels, and it all starts to get out of hand.

However, total sales, costs, interest, etc. have somewhat tight estimates. Here's what I think (notice the awesome gross margin due to OSX and PowerSchool):
                $ in millions
Revenue 1571
Cost 1124
------------------------
Gross Income 447
Gross Margin 28.5%

R&D 103
SG&A 291
------------------------
Oper. expenses 394
------------------------
Oper. Income 53
Oper. Margin 3.4%

Interest and
Other Income 61
------------------------
Pre-Tax Income 114
Income Taxes 31
------------------------
Net Income 83
Net Margin 5.3%

Diluted Shares 353
Diluted EPS 0.23

I'm throwing primes all over the place just for fun (and because it worked for the last quarter .11) We'll see how close I got in just a few hours...

Deagol
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