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Yes, that was excruciating.This is a forum for macroeconomics. Perhaps you could start your own blog?
This is a forum for macroeconomics. Perhaps you could start your own blog? Actually, on reflection I think you are right (about not being relevant to this forum -- not about the blog!).Also, the post sort of sounds self-congratulatory, which was neither my attitude nor my intent.So I have asked the powers that be to pull the post. I can just email the update to my kids.BTW, just for the record, as in all my posts, names are changed for obvious reasons.ADD
So I have asked the powers that be to pull the post. I can just email the update to my kids.BTW, just for the record, as in all my posts, names are changed for obvious reasons.ADDNNNNNNNNNNNnnnnnnnOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooooooooPhew saved it. Truly great fun read, enjoyed every word. Tim VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVAuthor: ADrumlinDaisy Number: of 437531 Subject: 2/3 OT, Overlong, Featuring the Stump of Wisdom Date: 10/27/2013 9:39 PMPost New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create PollReport this Post | Recommend it!Recommendations: 12 This is an excruciating post, long and dull. Sorry!The investing stuff is kind of in the middle, and may be barely worth a quick look. The rest is OT and just updates my far-flung kids on things up here on the ridge. Again, as a warning (and an apology): this may be the longest post ever on a MF board. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * My daughter had the choice of listening to me work on my song, “Lament to Clemente,” or doing the dishes, so I was out on the stump alone, sipping a Hot Chocolate and entertaining the dogs. I was trying to figure out how to bring the song home, fooling around with a Mama Maybelle strum and cogitating about the hole I had dug myself with the lyrics:If I’d known it was a game, I wouldn’t have played;If I’d known you was fooling, I wouldn’t have stayed;You changed all the rules and didn’t tell me,And now you say you’re setting me free.I know you’ve decided and I can’t change your mind,You’re fully determined to leave me behind.So let’s drink to the future since the die has been cast,But when no one’s looking I’ll drink to the past.Yes raise your glass high, my former delight,We’ll drink to the stars; we’ll drink to the night,We’ll share this last moment; then I must part,Taking my memories, but leaving my heart.But what next? I just couldn’t bring it to a satisfactory conclusion. Since it is a country song, there has to be a mournful dog, or a dying and a burying, and the song just was not taking me there. In fact, it was not taking me anywhere. All I had was a wimpy, heartbroken guy acting in a kind of unmanly way . . . .So I was almost relieved when the radio crackled and I heard Gib’s voice.* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Have you ever stood on the banks of the Niagara River, just upstream from the Falls, watching the water race by and wondering what it would be like to step out into that dark current – wondering what it would feel like, and whether you could make it back to shore? How many people have stood there and wondered; how many people have taken that one fateful step?On a related note, how many of us have invested in this strange, strong market as it roars higher and higher? How many of even the most gloomy curmudgeons have tested the waters gingerly at first and then, finding the temperature exhilarating and the current manageable, wandered farther and farther from the safety of the shore? In this post-apocalyptic, Fed-influenced market, youthful enthusiasts splash and frolic in the racing waters, while more seasoned investors find a sandbar where they can rest and be safe from the current – but almost everyone has left the shore and is braving the waters. And everyone is happy, because the Fed has promised a long, straight journey, free of problems for many months; everyone is happy, that is, except one dark and dour soul, who cannot see the Piper but knows he is there, malevolent hand outstretched, ready to enforce the only true Universal Law: TANSTAAFL! As this grim soul sits on his sandbar, he senses, out beyond the edge of hearing, a distant, faint rumble, a bass note that is more felt than heard; peering anxiously down the river, he can almost make out a faint haze, the edge of the corner of a fine spray. There is something out there, he thinks, something waiting downstream, but he is safe on his sandbar. And then, he looks down and is strangely unsurprised to see the sandbar slowly washing away, bit by bit, in the heavy current; his sandbar is shrinking! He looks downriver again, to the haze and spray and his now-uncertain fate, and he wishes he had stayed on the shore, but it is too late . . . .And he wonders what he should do next . . . . * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * “This is Least Weasel One, Authentication Code Alpha Tango Tango Niner, Case Zulu, I say again, Zulu, Zulu, Zulu. Acknowledge, anyone.”Gib loves this stuff – he gets most of his jargon from military science fiction, but we have all agreed that the only urgent message will be “Broken Arrow” (meaning everyone should get down to his bait shop muy pronto). Of course, the message that will stop my heart in its tracks will be one with no code at all – that will be the sign that something is really wrong. At this hour, probably no one else was awake, so I answered, “Hey, Gib, this is Daisy; what are you doing up so late?” “Daiz, remember to use code. Anyone could be listening in!”“For Pete’s sake, Gib, these things have a range of about ten feet; anybody listening will recognize our voices. And I really don’t have time to memorize that codebook you sent around.”Actually, our transceivers advertise a “35 mile range,” which, translated into Honest English, means “line of sight range not exceeding one mile.” Fortunately Gib lives in the back of his bait shop down in Least Weasel Hollow, so almost everyone on the ridge is within range of his signal.It occurs to me that this may all be coming out of left field a bit, so let me take a minute to explain. Gib can’t use a cell phone because he weighs about four hundred pounds and his fingers don’t work so well any more, so when we decided he needed a way of contacting people if he felt another heart attack coming on, Elmer had the bright idea of getting us all used walkie-talkies. Gib used to drive a big rig before the diabetes got bad, so he took to the idea like a turtle to mud, and now our half duplex channel network has become sort of the Facebook of our community.Anyway, I asked Gib again why he was calling so late, and after some prying it turned out that he was sitting there in the dark, feeling alone and wondering if he would ever find anybody to sit on the other side of the dinner table, so to speak. And, to be honest, this was all a bit above my pay grade; Gib is a great human being, but he has a lot of baggage and is no spring chicken.So, I sat there listening to the static of the open channel and wondering what to say . . . . * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * One guy, one stump , and three conundrums: a bad song; a crazy market; and a friend in need. Fortunately, we are not talking about any ordinary stump; my stump is from a fine old sycamore tree -- maybe a relative of Big Tree over in Webster Springs (the biggest sycamore tree in the world) – and my son calls it the “Stump of Wisdom.” So let’s see if we can’t make a dent in these three problems.This is an investing board; let us start by tackling the question of whether we are in a Niagara market. What should we do right now with our assets? Should we swim for shore, or dive in and ride the current?When in doubt, consult the experts. Here are recent pronouncements by a Who’s Who of the greatest investors in the world; perhaps they can guide us toward the truth: Jack Boglea 2% dividend yield, which is roughly where we are today, and possibly--maybe a little optimistically--5% earnings growth from here . . . . 7% is pretty good . . . [assuming 2% inflation], that would be a 5% real return . . . .http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=615377Seth Klarman. . . Seth Klarman . . . is telling investors in his $28 billion Baupost Group that he’s going to give them some of their money back at the end of the year. . . .The Boston money manager has had about 30 percent of his fund’s assets in cash over the past two years . . . .Last year, Klarman . . . was one of the many hedge funds that loaded up on gold—a losing position most of this year.The fund has also trailed the broader stock market . . . http://nypost.com/2013/09/24/klarman-returns-money-to-invest......Warren BuffetIn our search for truth, we must be ruthless in our judgments. In baseball, we ask, “Ruth or Mays?” In physics, “Newton or Einstein?” In music, “Bach or Mozart?” There is no such question in investing; there is an unquestioned greatest investor, so far ahead of everyone else that there is no point in talking about second place. Here is what the greatest investor who ever lived had to say in his most recent shareholder letter:American business will do fine over time. And stocks will do well just as certainly . . . . Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor. . . it’s a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of [the market] . . . . The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it.More than 50 years ago, Charlie told me that it was far better to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than to buy a fair business at a wonderful price. Charlie and I believe in operating with many redundant layers of liquidity, and we avoid any sort of obligation that could drain our cash in a material way. 2013 letter to shareholdersJeremy Grantham. . . own stock in the ground, own great resources, reserves of phosphorous, potash, oil, copper, tin, zinc—you name it. I'd be less enthusiastic about aluminum and iron ore . . . I wouldn't own coal, and I wouldn't own tar sands. . . . the metals and particularly the fertilizers, I would own—and the most important of all is food . . . .very good farmland. . . . forestry is the same. . . . it's in a world where everything is overpriced today, once again, courtesy of incredibly low interest rates . . . .http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142412788732366550......Bill GrossIf you want to trust one thing and one thing only, trust that once QE is gone and the policy rate becomes the focus, that fed funds will then stay lower than expected for a long, long time. Right now the market (and the Fed forecasts) expects fed funds to be 1% higher by late 2015 and 1% higher still by December 2016. Bet against that.Mr. Gross emphasizes that he is talking about the front end of the yield curve; I suspect it is the back end that is more relevant to equity investing.http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Survival-of-the-Fitte......Bruce BerkowitzEighty-five percent of net assets are invested in American International Group, Bank of America Corp, and others damaged by our country’s residential real estate bubble. . . . a deeply held – and historically profitable – belief that it doesn’t pay to bet against America.http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/08/bruce-berkowitz-fannie-mae-......Tom GaynerI tend to be a bottom-up person, finding ideas one at a time, rather than having any particular market prediction about things. I don't know what the market's going to do . . . . I don't think the valuations are ridiculous or that stretched or out of control or anything. Now, from time to time, there are eras and environments where we would act more dramatically because we think things are screaming cheap or ridiculously expensive. I don't think now is either one of those times. Things are not screaming cheap, neither are they ridiculously expensive. So we're kind of steady as she goes. http://www.nasdaq.com/article/markel-manager-tom-gayner-inte......And finally, a Thelma and Louise moment from John HussmanIf you picture a small child throwing a stone upward and out over the edge of the Grand Canyon, you’ll get a general idea of the market trajectory that we expect over the completion of this cycle.http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131021.htm* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Well, no one is really preaching doom and gloom other than the Happy Hedger, John Hussman, and he is a definite outlier in this group in a number of ways (perspective, reputation, lifetime performance . . . .), so let us focus on the others. Klarman seems pretty negative, but is apparently 70% invested, although not seeing many opportunities (hence the return of cash). Grantham thinks everything is over-priced, but would not say we are in a bubble, and continues to invest in selected areas. Bill Gross apparently continues to believe that future equity returns will be muted, but also apparently thinks that there are not really any better games in town. (I am relying in part on a larger selection of his recent monthly letters.) In short, I think it is safe to say that these guys – our most negative experts – would advise investing in the market with a reasonable cash reserve and a great deal of selectivity.On the other hand, Buffet, Bogle, Berkowitz and Gayner all seem to feel that the market is not particularly dangerous right now – Buffet and Gayner, in particular, pretty clearly believe that investors should worry less about the macroeconomic environment and more about careful stock selection.OK, let’s bring this home. Properly weighted (70% Buffet and 30% split amongst everyone else), our experts suggest that we keep a decent amount of cash available (well under 30%, presumably) and invest the rest of our equity portfolio allocation among excellent, reasonably valued stocks. So, that rumble we hear in the distance? It is not a waterfall; it is instead merely a rough patch of turbulent water. And we will be fine so long as we invest carefully and for the long term; no need to load up on gold, bullets and Pop Tarts. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Now that we are on a roll, let’s dispose of the remaining two issues.First, Gib.“Gib, are you listening?”“Yeah, of course, Daisy.”“OK Gib, here’s what you do. Three things. Number one, I want you to go see a nutritionist down in St. Albans. Charlene knows a good one, a young woman who is really supportive. It is expensive but we will all chip in a little if you give us a break on the occasional fish sandwich next spring. You got that?”“Gee, I don’t know . . . ““Gib, this is not optional. I want you to do it. Charlene will call you in the morning and help get it arranged.”“OK, but . . . ““Second, I want you to start going regular to the First Presbyterian Church down in Charleston. They are a great bunch of people and the pastor is a cousin of mine; he will make sure you get to know people right away. But I will be recommending you to my cousin, so don’t let me down; you go every week, you hear?”“Sunday mornings is a big time for the bait shop in season, Daisy . . . ““By the time services start everyone is out on the river, Gib. This is a way to meet people that you might like. Third, I am going to have Elmer bring you down two of Blue’s puppies; they are weaned now, and it will give you something to think about besides yourself.”“Tickle’s gonna soak me an arm and a leg for those puppies, Daisy, you know how he is; he put the ‘e’ in ignorant. [We call Elmer “Tickle” because . . . well, I don’t have to explain it, do I? “Tickle Me Elmer” . . . ]”“He’ll do it for free. Now go to bed and call me in the morning.”And that was that. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * So, after an hour or so on the Stump of Wisdom, all was well on the ridge.Oh, I almost forgot – what about the song?Well, it came to me suddenly; the real world solution to a sappy protagonist. Do not try to make him deeper and more emotional; that just make things worse. Go in the other direction entirely; make him shallow, with a short attention span in all matters romantic. I.e., make him a typical high-ridge West Virginia guy:But while Venus shines, so low in the west,I hope you won’t mind if I suggest,We lie down once more, for old time’s sake,There in the soft grass down by the lake.You may be an adder, but you’re looking so fine,And I oughtn’t to say this – I guess it’s the wine –But let’s close the circle; where is the sinIf we write the finale the way we came in?Clemente responds forcefully in the negative – a verse from her song, “Response to Alphonse,”and then Alphonse continues:Well then you take the house, the car and the kids;I’ll hit the bottle, the road and the skids.Yes this is the way that my world ends,Not with a bang, just a parting as friends.* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Three up, three down – you cannot stump the Stump! Now off to bed . . . . A Drumlin DaisyThe “Ann Landers of St Albans”
Macro-eonomics is Kale.Well writ news summaries and reflections are oil.Politic economic rants are vinegar.Tossed well and i can stomach it, but NOT every day, unless Drumlin D and a few others toss in some BACON!!! Let us have no more sourpuss condemnations or talk of pulled posts, but only pulled pork! (What is poutine, again?)david fb
For your enjoyment (I hope), I have selected some illuminating (at least for me) excerpts from the OP, with counterpoints from the same author posted months ago. It seems possible, though not probable, that the writer could pen both posts without suffering intellectual whiplash:"When in doubt, consult the experts. Here are recent pronouncements by a Who’s Who of the greatest investors in the world; perhaps they can guide us toward the truth: Seth KlarmanWarren Buffet"American business will do fine over time. And stocks will do well just as certainly . . . . Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor. . . it’s a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of [the market] . . . . The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it.More than 50 years ago, Charlie told me that it was far better to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than to buy a fair business at a wonderful price.Charlie and I believe in operating with many redundant layers of liquidity, and we avoid any sort of obligation that could drain our cash in a material way. In our search for truth, we must be ruthless in our judgments."Daisy: "In baseball, we ask, “Ruth or Mays?” In physics, “Newton or Einstein?” In music, “Bach or Mozart?”There is no such question in investing; there is an unquestioned greatest investor, so far ahead of everyone else that there is no point in talking about second place. OK, let’s bring this home.Properly weighted (70% Buffet and 30% split amongst everyone else)"=====================================================================================================================================What Daisy said months ago:"Let’s start at an oblique angle and work our way into this idea; in fact, let’s start with an act of sacrilege: Do you think that maybe Warren Buffet was just lucky?Look, suppose we had a million people flipping coins, and we asked each one to do twenty flips. Now, purely statistically, there is a good chance that one person will get 20 heads – maybe some guy in Fresno, for example. And, I am pretty sure that if that were to happen, he would have very good explanations for his success – the angle of his wrist, the starting position of the coin, his vigorous telekinetic push at just the right instant – but of course that is all hooey, right? He was just the lucky one – the one whose existence is predicted by the laws of probability, but whose particular identity cannot be predicted due to the random nature of the circumstances.OK, back to our lucky coin-flipper: pretty soon he is featured on CNBC; he gets a nickname (the “Flipper of Fresno”) and a grouchy maverick sidekick named Charlie Curmudgeon, who basks in his reflected glory and writes books that are bought by literally dozens of people. And nobody notices that our hero’s coin-flipping results are pretty darn ordinary once his lucky streak ended – and much of the success that does follow that streak is due to the special flipping deals that he is able to strike based on his reputation.People have an amazing ability to explain their successes in terms of their ability, foresight and effort, and their failures on the basis of chance, luck, and karma. But maybe, just maybe, it is all – every bit of it – explained by chance, luck and karma.Who is the smartest guy out there, in terms of investing? I think John Hussman is brilliant. It is hard to imagine someone being smarter than he is. But he is rated as a one-star fund manager by Morningstar – essentially one step above being tarred and feathered and run out of town -- and his performance has been pretty darn weak. ((OP highly praised Hussman recently and revealed owning Hussman funds))Jeremy Grantham is brilliant, and he has done a lot of very visible things right over the decades, but even his performance is not staggeringly good. ((Grantham received effusive praise from OP not long ago))Seth Klarman is brilliant, right? Check out how his recent purchases have done. ..maybe the overtly intelligent investors are like all of the professors scattered around the world who can analyze works of literature until the cows come home, but can’t write anything original that is worth the loss of a tree. Maybe the overtly, obviously intelligent investors are the Salieris of the investing world – intellect, form, precision, and no art, no results other than the random dictates of chance.And this raises (not “begs,” for the sake of all that is holy) the question of whether there are any investing Mozarts out there – any buffoons who somehow have a genius for investing. After all, the existence of a Salieri does not guarantee the existence of a Mozart.http://boards.fool.com/begging-the-question-30387048.aspxcomment: Wow, just wow. Buffett gets promoted from lucky coin flipper to a 70% weighting as the world's most reliable source for investment advice.Of course, both posts are highly rec'd, and neither are challenged by any posters as to content. Because, as we all know, it's not about investing, it's about entertainment.
Yes, that was excruciating.This is a forum for macroeconomics. Perhaps you could start your own blog? Boo. It hardly takes you any time at all to skip these posts, which are better content than 80% of the other psots on this board, whether on or off topic. These posts are clearly welcome here. Please keep them coming.
This is a forum for macroeconomics. Perhaps you could start your own blog?If'n y'all don' like literature go back to readin' the funnypaper. If'n y'all don' see the macroeconomics in that post then Little Orphan Annie knows more about investing than you.TMF has thoughtfully placed an ignore button at the top of all posts. I suggest you use it and quit trying to foist your religion on the rest of us.
This is a forum for macroeconomics. Perhaps you could start your own blog? Actually, on reflection I think you are right (about not being relevant to this forum -- not about the blog!)."O, beware, my lord of jealousy;It is the green-ey'd monster, which doth mockThe meat it feeds on."Othello Act 3 scene 3Daisy, you an that thar ShakesAspear guy got it right so don't change a word! An for heavens sakes don't pull your post!Some people wouldn't know good investment advice if it bit'em on the A$$ets!Why I even rec'd one of Tim's posts for the first time in months when he defended you and saved a copy of your post for prosperity.The concept poor we will always have with us, but you sir "get it" so keep on posting.Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people. -- Eleanor Roosevelt
Tim, can't believe you saved the post from never......never...land. Good job, saved Monday AM, off to work now.Enjoyed it immensely..............
The post that you FA'd did NOT violate METAR rules. It was not politically partisan, it did not insult anyone or promulgate a religion. It did not contain a large or un-attributed amount of copyrighted material. It was labeled partially OT, which described it well.DO NOT pull a post from METAR unless it violates a METAR rule!Many METARs post interesting OT thoughts. Just because you personally do not like a post does not give you the right to FA it!Many METARs (including myself) love ADrumlinDaisy's (ADD's) rambling, meditative, wise, funny posts. I've been busy and I was afraid I missed ADD's latest post because you FA'd it. Fortunately, Tim re-posted (ADD's) post. If you want to be welcome on METAR -- don't violate the rules and don't pull a post (especially from favorite members) unless it violates the rules!Wendy
ADrumlinDaisy, please continue to post here regardless of the occasional sourpuss in the peanut gallery.Many METARs (including myself) love your posts.Wendy
DO NOT pull a post from METAR unless it violates a METAR rule!Hi Wendy,I apologize – I am guilty of pulling the post. And thanks to you and others here for the kind words.I was not really influenced so much by the negative post - - I have five kids and thus a fairly insensitive hide. Instead, I was leery from the beginning about my post – sort of worried about posting it – because it was so long and it seemed weird to post the lyrics of a song I wrote. So, when I saw a post agreeing with me that it was excruciating, that kind of reflected my own view. Also, my teenage daughter wandered by and we had this conversation:Sammie: Hi, Dad, you look troubled.Me: Yeah, I am wondering if I didn’t make a mistake in putting up a really long dull post on the METAR board. I was worried from the beginning, and the first guy that read it said that it was excruciating.Sammie: I am sure he was kidding; it was probably a fun post.Me: Well, I kind of wish I hadn’t included the lyrics to my song. Sammie: Oh, no – did you really do that? Wow, borrrrrrring! Gee, next you will be posting recipes or something!Me: Well, actually, a while ago I did . . . .Sammie: That’s like the guy that brings over a slide show of his trip, Dad. Can you take the post down?Me: I’m not sure . . . .Finally, at that point I reread the post and it sounded as if I thought I had all the answers to every problem, when truly it was just kind of a marvelous night when everything turned out OK. So, I decided to pull the post rather than test the patience of the community here. Probably I should have left it up, but mostly I didn’t like the unintended know-it-all feel of the post.Anyway, I do not mind the criticisms I get (in a weird way, I am honored that people pay enough attention to make such careful critical comments), and I very much enjoy being a part of this excellent and interesting community.So here is a poem I wrote:(just kidding)RichA Drumlin DaisyOK, OK, I can’t help it; I am going to include two poems I wrote. Imagine what would happen if John Hussman got a job writing verses for Hallmark cards. For example, a birthday card for a wife:HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO MY WIFEEnjoy this birthday, sweetheart,Put on your party cloak.Enjoy your special day, my tart,For we are going broke.Yes fate is oh so fickle, dear,And the future looks quite grim.With luck we may survive the year;The outlook, though, is dim.So happy birthday, honey,Ignore our sinking ship;For though we have no money,At least our taxes will be zip!And here is a Congratulations Graduate card, Hussman style:CONGRATULATIONS GRADUATEYou must be proud today;You rose above the mob.And I am very proud to say,I hope you get a job.OK, this means that at one point or another I have now posted a recipe, a song and a poem on these boards. I have completed the bad-taste trifecta!
OK, this means that at one point or another I have now posted a recipe, a song and a poem on these boards. I have completed the bad-taste trifecta!As we say in the combat shooting sports; "Any target worth shooting once is worth shooting again, and again, and again, and ..."Keep up the good work, I'll be looking forward to your next posts.Desert (The world's greatest excuse pales in the face of mediocre performance.) Dave -- (Quotation, with attribution, permitted and encouraged.)
Thank you for recommending this post to our Best of feature.OK, this means that at one point or another I have now posted a recipe, a song and a poem on these boards. I have completed the bad-taste trifecta!Rich,Please, no prayer!!!!!!!That would indeed trigger an FA. **** absolutely not signed ****
< I reread the post and it sounded as if I thought I had all the answers to every problem, when truly it was just kind of a marvelous night when everything turned out OK.So, I decided to pull the post rather than test the patience of the community here.>Dance as if nobody is watching.By the way, I loved your song and had a good chuckle...a needed chuckle because I am visiting a friend in the hospital tomorrow and meeting with his vascular surgeon and palliative care. Wednesday...surgery. He's just out of a month in the ICU.So I can use a chuckle.Thanks,Wendy
Please post another recipe. We can all use a little expansion of the recipe file. For life, the stove, and otherwise.
Dance as if nobody is watching.Hi Wendy,I hope all went well with your friend’s surgery.Thank you for reminding me of the first of the Three American Canonical Sermons, which I shall now reproduce in full for the benefit of our younger community members, with investing-related commentary befitting my laser-like focus on topical relevance on these boards: The Sermon on Full Commitment, from William W. Purkey:You've gotta dance like there's nobody watching,Lose yourself in the emotions of the moment as you make trading decisionsLove like you'll never be hurt,TSLA and NFLX, anyone?Sing like there's nobody listening,Just check out any teenager with headphones – videotape it if you can for later blackmail use (Facebook can be a parent’s best friend)And live like it's heaven on earth.Spend freely; do not sweat details such as budgets and future needs (college, retirement, etc.)Well, to be honest, although I follow all of these principles in my own investing, I am not sure on reflection that, taken as a whole, they constitute good advice. Let’s move on to:The Sermon on Risk, from Nelson Algren (I wish he had used “person” instead of “woman,” but I believe it is a felony to alter any of the Canonical Sermons):Never play cards with a man called Doc. Do not trade options or futures; the guy on the other side of the trade is probably “Doc”Never eat at a place called Mom's.Do not just buy the story; do your research and look at the hard facts Never sleep with a woman whose troubles are worse than your own.Everybody loves a good turnaround story . . . for a while OK, not bad!Finally:The great Sermon on the Unity of Being (aka the “Sermon on the Mound”), from Satchel Paige:Avoid fried meals, which angry up the blood. Sell MCD and PNRA; buy WFMIf your stomach disputes you, lie down and pacify it with cool thoughts. If you are nervous about the market, push away from the computer and think about something else. Play some canasta.Keep the juices flowing by jangling around gently as you move.Uhhh . . . . Go very light on the vices, such as carrying on in society. The social rumble ain't restful. Sell SAM and PMAvoid running at all times. If you think you have to hurry to seize a trading opportunity, don’t – just take a deep breath and resolve to think about it for 24 hours and then approach it again. This, BTW, is also a pretty good recipe for handling opportunities for flirtatious adventures outside the boundaries of the domestic relationship (as a ruggedly handsome individual, I have had to develop a policy for such things).Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you. Make your trades based on today and tomorrow, not yesterday – do not anchor on your history with that stock. I would love to have had an opportunity to sit on a stump and chat with this guy . . . .OK, that was definitely On Topic – in fact, so much so that I am skittish and uncomfortable. So, Wendy, seeing that you implicitly brought up the topic of Satchel Paige (strange; I would not have pegged you for a baseball fan) . . . .Once upon a time there was an intelligent, personable young man who had an unusual talent: he could throw a baseball straighter and faster than anyone had ever seen. Although this talent was valued highly, the young man was not allowed to display it in the usual forums because his skin was darker than permitted. So while paler stars occupied the public eye and competed for the highest prizes, the brilliant youngster labored in relative obscurity.Supernovas will out, however, and eventually young Mr. Paige became known across the land. Large crowds would flock to watch him strike out other talented dark men in the summer, and even larger crowds would come to see him pitch in the off-season against “barnstorming teams” – teams assembled from the best of the wan players. Often in these games Mr. Paige would delight the crowd by inviting his outfielders and infielders to go sit in the shade while he dealt with the pallid efforts of the best major league batters, usually by throwing nine straight unhittable strikes.It was widely understood among baseball professionals of his era that Mr. Paige was the greatest pitcher of all time. This is reflected in the unconscious testimony of a New York Yankees scout reporting on the efforts of the rising young Yankee phenomenon, Joe DiMaggio, against the lethal dark thrower in a barnstorming game in Oakland. After Paige had struck out fourteen batters, including DiMaggio three times, DiMaggio managed to beat out an infield ground ball for a single:A Yankee scout watching the game wired the club that day a report that read, "DiMaggio everything we'd hoped he'd be: Hit Satch one for four." DiMaggio later said that Paige was the best pitcher he had ever faced.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satchel_PaigeJolting Joe got the girl, the money, and a song.Mr. Paige?Well, he could not be ignored, despite the best efforts of a pastel society. He did pretty well, and left quite a legacy. I wonder, though, if time and distance will ever give us the clarity of vision to understand – as did all of Mr. Paige’s contemporaries – that he was, by a wide margin, the greatest pitcher who ever lived.RichA Drumlin Daisy
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