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.3333 UPRO/.6667 SHY vs. straight SPY
$10000 turns into $25157 and $26867 respectively

How are you calculating that? Using the numbers above, which appear correct:
UPRO 38.80/2.36 = 16.4x
SPY 260.00/92.34 = 2.8x

$3,333 x 16.4 = 54,661 UPRO
$6,667 x 1.08 = 7,200 SHY


$10,000 x 2.8 = 28,000

Looks as if one could cap MDD at around 13% (UPRO goes to zero) and still match SPY.
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