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Climate Change isn't going to be cheap:

http://auburnpub.com/news/state-and-regional/senate-approves......



That's the equivalent of saying -

Climate Change isn't going to be cheap:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2012/12/28/milk-prices-co...

Neither milk prices, nor the damage from Hurricane Sandy, have anything to do with climate change.

Elan
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Climate Change isn't going to be cheap:
Between climate change and fracking, my winter heating bills seem to be doing ok.
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Climate change has had a lot to do with Hurricane Sandy.

While technically Hurricane Sandy was just a tropical storm
by the time it reached shore, it illustrates the increasing
problems that coastal areas will be facing in the future.

Warming ocean temperatures are supporting greater storminess
and at later times in the season. Atlantic Ocean temperatures
at the time were abnormally warm water off East Coast because
of Global Warming; almost 3C warmer than normal.

In addition, because of Global Warming, sea levels are
about 1' higher than 100 years ago.

Finally, Hurricane Sandy has established a record as the
largest Atlantic Hurricane (1100 miles in diameter).

Unfortunately, within 40 years, this will become the norm
and similar storms will occur yearly.
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When the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
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Climate change had NOTHING to do with Sandy.

---

"While technically Hurricane Sandy was just a tropical storm
by the time it reached shore, it illustrates the increasing
problems that coastal areas will be facing in the future."

Yes, if you ever watched the weather channel, the show called IT COULD HAPPEN TOMORROW, one of the series of programs was a Cat 3 hurricane hitting NYC. It's happened every 80 years on average for the past thousand years.

what happened? Exactly as predicted...well, not as bad as predicted. Only 14-15 foot surge instead of the 20 feet that the Weather CHannel show predicted.

Nothing new. 80 years ago, a hurricane wiped out half of Long Island....20 foot wall of water wiped half the island CLEAN...,nothing left behind.

-------



"Warming ocean temperatures are supporting greater storminess
and at later times in the season."


At the same time, record LOW of storms actually hitting the US.

------




"In addition, because of Global Warming, sea levels are
about 1' higher than 100 years ago."

Yes, which is why you should not be building homes five feet above sea level like most barrier islands in NJ...and NY......when you have 20 foot storm surges.

only an idiot would really worry about being six feet above sea level vs five....when you have 80 year storms that deliver 20 feet of storm surge, right?

You shouldn't have built there in the first place! and you'd better have very good insurance

-------



"Finally, Hurricane Sandy has established a record as the
largest Atlantic Hurricane (1100 miles in diameter)."

But weak....not even Cat 1 when it hit.


-----

You forgot to bring up katrina which also wiped out lots of places six feet above sea level or lower......

one of the few, record low, storms that hit the US>

OH...and the weather channel had a program called IT COULD HAPPEN TOMORROW that showed what would happen if a Cat 5 hurricane hit new Orleans..it was scheduled to broadcast two weeks before Katrina hit.

Nothing new..hurricanes hit New Orleans every so many decades. Their time had come.



t.
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While technically Hurricane Sandy was just a tropical storm
by the time it reached shore, it illustrates the increasing
problems that coastal areas will be facing in the future.


So you're saying that Hurricane Sandy is an illustration of what the FUTURE of global warming will look like, in your imagination.

In addition, because of Global Warming, sea levels are
about 1' higher than 100 years ago.


No, sea levels are not 1 foot higher than 100 years ago. They are about 2 inches higher. So out of a maximum storm surge of about 12 feet, half of which was an exceptionally high tide due a coincidence of the calendar, and half due to the low barometric pressure and wind of a large tropical storm, global warming contributed 1.5% of the storm surge.

Finally, Hurricane Sandy has established a record as the
largest Atlantic Hurricane (1100 miles in diameter).


With any statistical variable, such as record high or low temperature, rainfall, wind, etc., the longer you continue to take measurements the more new records you will find. Studies of hurricane numbers and intensities have not found any increasing trend.

Unfortunately, within 40 years, this will become the norm
and similar storms will occur yearly.


I'd make you a big wager against that if I expected to be alive in 40 years.

Elan
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Elann - The Sea Level at Battery Park IS a foot higher.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/NYSLR.jpg

Sea level rise isn't uniform. Eastern Seaboard gets more than most.

I think Sandy WAS worse than it would've been without our AGW but attribution - how much - is not something I'd claim to know. I accept Hansen's "loaded dice" argument, but don't know how they rolled this time around any more than anyone else.

As for what will happen...

I'd likely take that wager but would need to get into triple digits to get paid :-) The CO2 suppression is transient, and relies on temperature remaining constant... and we've not seen even half of what we are guaranteed at our current rates of warming, and we ARE still pumping the CO2 into the atmosphere.

So I don't think you're going to be pleasantly surprised, even in our remaining lifetimes.
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Elann - The Sea Level at Battery Park IS a foot higher.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/NYSLR.jpg

Sea level rise isn't uniform. Eastern Seaboard gets more than most.


If the Eastern Seaboard got a foot of "sea level rise" in the last century, it's not because the water has risen, it's because the continent has been sinking. That has nothing to do with climate change. Without climate change the mean water level at Battery Park would have risen 10 inches instead of 12 inches, because the ground sank by 10 inches.

I wonder how much Battery Park has sunk simply because it's landfill. Such places, like New Orleans and most of Holland which are "reclaimed" bogs sink over time because the soil gradually dries out and shrinks. Its a man made problem that has nothing to do with climate change. Just as with CO2 emissions, the initial folly of "reclaiming" land from the sea has hidden costs that are paid over time.

Elan
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You may be wrong to attribute this to "sinking" of the Continent and landfill.

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n4/full/ngeo462.html

I won't say that you are wrong, but the differences are simply not simple. :-)

Moreover, the Battery Park tide guage isn't lying about what it actually sees with respect to lower Manhattan... so when someone says it was a foot, they aren't telling tales.

We're in trouble. Optimism doesn't help. It's going to cost us.
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Moreover, the Battery Park tide guage isn't lying about what it actually sees with respect to lower Manhattan... so when someone says it was a foot, they aren't telling tales.

The gauge isn't lying. It's the attribution to climate change that is lying.

Elan
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Too strong a word mate.

Even I don't think it is all Climate Change, but it IS more than the global rise as the research shows.

You are arguing a nuance, the problem is that it is going to cost
megabux and as the problem accelerates the mega will be a lot more obvious. This is just an appetizer.

Climate Change is the biggest "market failure" in the history of the world.
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Too strong a word mate.

Even I don't think it is all Climate Change, but it IS more than the global rise as the research shows.


Yes, I agree that a small portion, I think small enough to be insignificant, of Sandy's flooding was caused by climate change. The people who are lying, and there are many of those in the media, are those who would have us believe that the whole Sandy disaster was a symptom of climate change.

Lower Manhattan was not flooded because of climate change. It was flooded by an extraordinary storm that coincided with extraordinary tides. The effect was SLIGHTLY worse due to climate driven ocean level rise.

Elan
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Willis Re, a reinsurance company, has released an end of the year report.

www.willisre.com/documents/Media_Room/Publication/Jan_2013_1...

There are a couple of interesting quotes from the introduction:

Lastly, Superstorm Sandy has yet again demonstrated the danger of overreliance on catastrophe models, due to the complexity of the original loss as well as the emergence of a new and as yet unmodeled uncertainty: the politicization of policy form interpretation.

The politicization comment is in reference to the hurricane deductible. Since Sandy was not classified as a hurricane when it landed the insurance deductibles are much higher than if it had been even a Cat 1.

"...most reinsurers are still within their annual catastrophe budgets for 2012 and not facing any capital impact....In the absence of Superstorm Sandy, reinsurers would have found it difficult to resist buyer pressure for further concessions. As such, Sandy’s impact has helped to stabilize market pricing on an overall basis and reinsurers have largely delivered to their clients in terms of capacity and continuity.

Translation: Thank heavens for Sandy.

DB2
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