No. of Recommendations: 61
I posted a very, very simple bull/bear indicator a while back, based
on the test: has the S&P had a new 99-day-high in the last 99 days?
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27035352

This is still bearish, as it has been since March 5 2008, when the S&P
was 61% higher than it is now.

One of the cool things about this indicator is that you can sort of
look into the future a bit, and see what the market would have to do
for the signal to go bullish. (the buy signals are much better timed
that the sell signals on this indicator, so a buy signal is a pretty
good indication of "it's probably safe to go back in the water")

To go bullish, the S&P would have to rise
...40.4% by Feb 23 (not bloody likely), or
...26.4% by Feb 27 (very unlikely), or
...21.9% by Mar 6 (very unlikely), or
...15.2% by Mar 30 (very possible), or
...10.3% by May 27 (I would expect so), or
...6.2% by June 1 (let's hope), or
...1.5% by June 29 (it had better).

So, this gives you an idea that based on today's data, the next buy
signal might be somewhere around mid-late March or more reliably by April.

Here's the situation today. (the index has to bump the yellow line upwards).
www.stonewellfunds.com/99day_2008-02-13.jpg

Here's how to follow it from day to day.
The bullish signal is when the most recent move in the upper line is upwards.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&m...

Jim
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