No. of Recommendations: 61
I posted a very, very simple bull/bear indicator a while back, based
on the test: has the S&P had a new 99-day-high in the last 99 days?

This is still bearish, as it has been since March 5 2008, when the S&P
was 61% higher than it is now.

One of the cool things about this indicator is that you can sort of
look into the future a bit, and see what the market would have to do
for the signal to go bullish. (the buy signals are much better timed
that the sell signals on this indicator, so a buy signal is a pretty
good indication of "it's probably safe to go back in the water")

To go bullish, the S&P would have to rise
...40.4% by Feb 23 (not bloody likely), or
...26.4% by Feb 27 (very unlikely), or
...21.9% by Mar 6 (very unlikely), or
...15.2% by Mar 30 (very possible), or
...10.3% by May 27 (I would expect so), or
...6.2% by June 1 (let's hope), or
...1.5% by June 29 (it had better).

So, this gives you an idea that based on today's data, the next buy
signal might be somewhere around mid-late March or more reliably by April.

Here's the situation today. (the index has to bump the yellow line upwards).

Here's how to follow it from day to day.
The bullish signal is when the most recent move in the upper line is upwards.$SPX&p=D&yr=1&m...

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