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Subject:  Re: How do Analysts analyze? Date:  7/3/1998  4:15 AM
Author:  ppkimman Number:  896 of 14486

Fact is: nobody knows.........the market determines the price for crude. Certainly the analysts are the last ones on my list I look for advise.
I think the analyst needs to talk towards a certain forecast on the share price and then calculates backwards what crude (price) level supports his chosen share price level. What that analyst says is plain oldfashioned B.S.......crude traders who are 10-20 years day-in-day-out in this market can't tell you with any degree of certainty what the crude price is gonna be 2-3 months forward......why do you think the industry and volume of derivatives ( futures/options/swaps,etc) is such an enormous "market" these days? ........exactly, because no one feels comfortable about the direction and level of future's simply impossible to forecast with an acceptable degree of certainty.
My common sense and knowledge of this market ( supply + demand of crude) tells me that we are in for a 1-2 year period of very depressed crude prices ( Brent in range $10-15/bl), possibly even a longer period of 2-4 years of oversupplied crude markets. That's my comfort zone for the analysis of that
report on what they base $19/bl and see if you are comfortable with their reasoning.........I bet it's based on thin air.
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