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URL:  https://boards.fool.com/bgpenhollo-date-9199-258-pm-number-13584-if-11215435.aspx

Subject:  Re: After Retirement?? Date:  9/1/1999  3:41 PM
Author:  WilliamLipp Number:  13588 of 93685

BGPenhollo Date: 9/1/99 2:58 PM Number: 13584
If one expects and feels comfortable that their investments will match the S&P over a 15 year period and the S&P does for example 11% (history repeats) then a withdrawal rate of 10.9% over that period will leave the investment value a bit above it's starting point.

This is true, but I think it's misleading. It could be a wild ride. If the 15 years of "history repeats" includes repeating 1974, you will see a year where your 10.9% is a LOT fewer dollars than the year before. If 10.9% of today represents the life-style you intend to support, there is a very strong possibility that you will not be able to afford it in many years. Most plans include some mechanism to smooth out this ride.
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