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Miscellaneous / Rule Tweener Companies


Subject:  Re: Tweeners that pay off Date:  10/1/1999  8:56 PM
Author:  gmcgrath Number:  31 of 46


OK. Your argument makes sense, but begs the question. If Tweeners spend their massive earnings capabilities on defending their market share, the investor is no better off than when he bought it way back for its potential growth, except that its potential growth is mostly behind it. Besides that, a Tweener has usually grown a bureaucracy that no longer allows it to compete long-term and thus such efforts are futile. In the end, the company eats up its reserves and the investor (whom held the entire time) ends up with nothing.

INTC is one of the best Tweeners, but it has not been decreasing its net outstanding shares or growing equity to catch up to its market price. If INTC were liquidated today, a shareholder would at best get ten cents on the dollar. All in all, to make money, one has to decide the right time to sell based upon his perception of what others will perceive its value, not its fundamental value. Therefore, this is speculation and not investing. It may be speculation signals that work, but that is until "the market" internalizes the signals that make it work.

Most of the market seems like a speculative game to me, although I enjoy it (in the same way I enjoy Blackjack).


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