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Stocks J / Jakks Pacific


Subject:  Re: JAKK's 4Q Results Date:  2/16/2000  11:59 AM
Author:  mitchinkc Number:  208 of 558

I've still got it. I really had set my mind to hold all my stocks at least a year, if not longer. DSO increasing would be a red flag for sure. I've got to admit, my selling stratey is not as formulated as my buying strategy. I feel that I am a little more conservative on the buying side. Certain imperfections (ie. missing an estimate, etc) may keep me from buying a stock but it might not cause me to sell a stock. I'm still holding CMED, too. :-(

I don't like DSO rising, but I know it happens. Some questions that might be good to ask:

1) Did DSO rise last year this same quarter? It might have something to do with Christmas, etc.

2) If we back the volume of sales represented by the increase in AR, would they have still beat estimates? If not, my fear is that they are manipulating numbers and that alone would make me think about selling. If they would still beat their estimates, then it is merely a red flag to watch. (However, I watched CMED rising AR as a red flag right past the red light stage and perhaps heading towards going down in flames stage.

Again, though. I tend to hold and tell myself to give them time. I can't conscientiously advise others to do the same, though.

If JAKK's other numbers look good (ie. their Gross Margin is improving it looks like), I'll add this to my white-knuckle portfolio.

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