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URL:  https://boards.fool.com/amid-all-the-recent-noise-here-id-like-to-draw-12052743.aspx

Subject:  Re: Superconductors an emerging GG? Date:  2/26/2000  2:21 AM
Author:  eguy Number:  1164 of 8813

Amid all the recent noise here, I'd like to draw attention to JSRdaMan 's post as a nice intro to the superconducting area as it relates to wireless, which seems to have huge potential. The use of superconductors in wireless applications, assuming that their benefits are as the companies claim, seem very necessary and compelling.

(I have been working in a place with no telephone line - causing me to rely extensively on my Sprint PCS phone. This place, funnily enough, lies just about midway between UCSD (the incubator of Qualcomm) and Qualcomm headquarters in San Diego. I have many dropped calls, and many incoming calls that go to voicemail because CDMA circuits are busy).

G/K Characteristics (I'm a novice, don't trust me):

1. The dramatic improvements to existing cell sites resulting from a revolutionary material that has been many years in development would strike me as being very much a discontinuous innovation - one that may have far greater implications in other industries (AMSC being an example in the power transmission area).

2. Since this technology is shared by at least three companies all of whom have product now, it would seem that there is no proprietary open architecture, unless one of them has a dramatically better technology, which dosen't seem to be the case.

3. At the same time, the fact that these products have been so many years in development would suggest big barriers to entry. These companies have been protecting their IP.

4. Assuming Irwin Jacobs is correct that in the near future "a wireline phone will be an object of some surprise" (love that line), it seems that superconducting filters do have the potential of being a mass market phenomenon within the wireless area.

5. Superconducting filters would become a new link in an existing value chain. That value chain is developed.

6. No way has it crossed the chasm.

7.No hypergrowth, except in share price. The share price appreciation in this small sector over the last two months is nothing short of astounding:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/comp_chart.gsp?cs=SCON&cs=ISCO&cs=CDTS&cs=&cs=&cs=&cs=&n=60&p=day
2500% in two months.

Which brings me to the question: The one group best qualified to evaluate these companies would be their customers or potential customers - any of the major wireless providers or suppliers. They could have bought any or all of SCON, ISCO, CDTS for nickels and dimes two months ago. Even at current valuations of well under a billion the superconductor companies could be absorbed by the likes of Sprint, the Bells, Qualcomm without even a hiccup. And these are the people who would have known about and been able to evaluate the product before anyone else. And also the ones most interested in the intellectual property. This makes me wonder.

Would be very interested in others' views.

Company sites:
http://204.149.108.175/default.asp
http://www.suptech.com/
http://WWW.CONDUCTUS.COM/
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