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Subject:  Staying A Millionaire Date:  3/8/2000  1:12 PM
Author:  MK3160 Number:  10566 of 33977

I must say, I'm amazed at the dearth of criticism in the messages responding to Rensor1 and his good fortune to date. It's not my desire to tell anyone how to invest their money..that is entirely their choice. But to think that Rensor's results are due to anything but exceptional good luck in the short term, is dangerous folly.

I cringed when I read his background information (age, job status, financial goals, investment experience, learning curve) and applied those few facts to his current situation. To take many years of hard earned retirement money out of a completely diversified vehicle (S&P 500 Fund) and plunk it lump sum into a single sector (technology) group of only 3 to 5 individual stocks, is the proverbial "asking for it" scenario. I know, I know you say but he turned $272,000 into a million in only 1 year. That feat has been accomplished even quicker in Las Vegas with much less up front capital but none of us would think that's the quickest way to a million would we? I call it exceptional luck because history shows that in any given 1 year period, you have only a 50/50 chance of making money in the stock market. We here in the Workshop and MI like to move those odds more in our favor by using "backtested" strategies that have done well historically (by the way, RS-IBD has not been backtested to the best of my knowledge). Nevertheless, even with the best research, knowledge, study and skill to expect triple digit CAGR's in our investments for any significant period of time is a pipe dream.

Real wealth is achieved and maintained by studying and investing in a group of DIVERSIFIED, profitable and well managed companies whether you find them in a mechanical strategy or through due diligence and painstaking research. We shouldn't let the recent incredible and unsustainable growth rate of the stock market completely erase the fundamental laws of the investing universe. We should instead enjoy this roaring and sustained bull market for what it is...a chance to accumulate assets when conditions are ripe so that we can ride out the inevitable downturns and really rough times. Reasonable diversification is a cornerstone of ANY successful investment plan that has stood the test of time. It will most likely help KEEP you a millionaire once you've had the discipline and good fortune to be one in the first place. Just my opinion for what it's worth.
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