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Subject:  Re: 3G License Fees Date:  9/4/2000  6:19 AM
Author:  bhhurd Number:  3058 of 4031

Thanks for the reply Chris,

Let's consider what license fees really are. They are taxes! Unlike income taxes which are based on profit, the payment these taxes is based on hope that 3G will be as rosy as you predict. I hope so too.

I am not so optimistic about the ability of the the 3G licensees to increase the average revenue per subscriber. This figure has been dropping dramatically over the last few years as competition increased. I base this on my own reading of telecom annual reports (I own their stock.)

How much will people pay each month for their cell phone service? USD 50, USD 75, USD 100, or higher?

And how much will competition trim the revenue per subcriber? Each of my family members now has their own phone and my total bill is lower now than it was for one phone and 1/5 or the airtime 4 years ago. When will this trend stop?

The same trend is happening in Korea and Taiwan where I also have cellular service.

Their is a saturation point for cell phone pentration. I do not know what it is, but Finland is 66% now. Will it go higher? I can not predict how many children under 10 will have cell phones in the future. Taiwan and Hongkong are between 57 and 58%. There is no question that China, India, Indonesia, and SE Asia will increase dramatically. These countries have low penetration.

Those are my thought on the issue.

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