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Subject:  Re: The Trend, my Friend, is Wrong Date:  12/5/2000  12:28 PM
Author:  SylvesterTheCat Number:  18926 of 123839


How do you know that the fear, uncertainty, and doubt surrounding the optics sector is unfounded? Long term we know the products will be in demand, but nobody knows how the cyclical economics of the market will play out.

I think to downplay it all as "FUD" and therefore not worth listening to is a dangerous game and suggests to me that the market has a lot more downside... obviously there are lots of investors out there who haven't learned their lesson yet. Even the new economy can experience downturns.


Yes, yes, and yes. It is my evaluation that it is FUD, that when Nortel's earnings brought the sector down it was FUD (their optical earnings are still in hypergrowth and are forecasted to remain the same); in scanning the news, in my estimation it is true that telecomm spending may slow, but not the portion related to the optical build out - I buy into the notion that they need to pay to play. Obviously, someone discerning a different truth will make different investment decisions.

I don't buy the whole new economy thing - it's the same economy with emerging new leaders which creates uncertainty and volatility in the short term.

The notion that it is dangerous to try to catch a falling knife certainly has some wisdom to it, I think the knife has fallen, made an indelible impression, is currently still "twanging" back and forth in the ground, and will soon (today, tomorrow, January) rust away and not be the clear and present danger it has been. In my estimation, now is not the time to be playing shorts (something which I admittedly am not good at), but to be establishing your new long positions for the continuation of the Broadband build out, which has just barely scratched the surface. Part of my thought in my original post is that the market has been forecasting the current economic slowdown which will bottom now or in the early part of next year, so now would be the time to be invested as the market will start forecasting the eventual economic pickup to respectable growth.

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