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Subject:  Re: The Trend, my Friend, is Wrong Date:  12/5/2000  1:05 PM
Author:  LoFlyer Number:  18927 of 123839

S-Cat writes:
In my estimation, now is not the time to be playing shorts (something which I admittedly am not good at), but to be establishing your new long positions for the continuation of the Broadband build out, which has just barely scratched the surface. Part of my thought in my original post is that the market has been forecasting the current economic slowdown which will bottom now or in the early part of next year, so now would be the time to be invested as the market will start forecasting the eventual economic pickup to respectable growth.

Correct-imundo, Cat! I do not know whether Nasdaq has bottomed, and I expect some, if not all, of the gaps today's trading leaves to be filled soon. However, the big picture has changed significantly for the better. The most powerful man in the world told us today that the Fed gets it!. They know that 50 basis points in the last hike was too much, and they will cut rates quickly if needed to prevent recession. Failure of the Fed to recognize their mistake of over-tightening was the only real danger that our economy could be dragged into recession. Today Sir Alan told us that he understands the risk and will correct the mistake promptly if the slowdown accelerates. Oil price is poised to break below $30, and that ain't bad either (although not nearly as significant as Greenspan's speech).

I'm not saying we will be at 5000 again anytime soon, but you are right on in saying that the fundamental strengths of our economy will reassert themselves in 2001. The macro forces of globalization, deregulation, and spectacular productivity improvements wrought by technology investments have not been changed, and the business cost reductions from exploitation of the Internet are just beginning.

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