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Subject:  Don't Get Fooled! Date:  12/5/2000  4:03 PM
Author:  augieboo Number:  18941 of 123835

Before everybody starts throwing their hoarded cash into this "rally," think very carefully! about why this is happening, and whether it's sustainable:

1. The Greenspan Factor

I hate to rain on everybody's parade but, the man said that if the economy continues to slow, rates may need to come down.

Translation: If you are pricing in a rate cut, (as are all the WISE I've seen on CNBC today), then you are in for a nasty surprise in about a week.

2. The ALBORE factor:

Yippee, the election may soon be over, but so what? It doesn't change the fundamentals of a single company.

3. TA/Gaps:

I'm still TA-challenged, but the great and wonderful T-Rat-Oz has taught me to look for GAPS! A few of my favorite companies and their new (and sometimes old) gaps:

CIEN -- gap up today
EMC -- gap up today
JDSU -- gap up today
JNPR -- no gap today; three old gaps unfilled
QCOM -- gap up today; gap at ~65
SCMR -- gap up today
SDLI -- gap up today
SUNW -- gap up today

Also consider: earnings season and tax loss selling are coming soon. Can you say, "retest the lows?"

So, dive in if you must, but don't blame me if you hit your head on the bottom of the pool.


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