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Subject:  Re: Don't Get Fooled! Date:  12/5/2000  5:38 PM
Author:  JTHays3 Number:  18966 of 123822

Of course, the main thing to remember is what the college professors teach - the market is always efficient! It is always perfectly priced based on the fact that all news is universally known, and therefore there are never any bargains or any overpriced stocks.

The fact that there is a ~20% difference between yesterday and today is immaterial, even with no real news. The only thing that causes stocks to change price outside their efficiency are random events which cannot be predicted. Therefore, there is no advantage to wasting our time doing either FA or TA, in spite of all the over-paid professional analysts who try to convince us otherwise.

YEAH, RIGHT! That's how all the college professors have made millions in the market! Try asking them to explain any part of this year using efficient theory. Great theory, just doesn't work.

Sorry for the rant, just finished reading "Irrational Exhuberance". Lots of great theory, not much basis in reality. Even though I agree that the market was overbought this spring, there is another professor who lives in a separate reality from me.

I think the current rally will bring us back towards rationality (from oversold), but as always, it's not really important how the market moves, only how YOUR individual stocks perform!

I still agree with the woodworker's tool buying creed. I've found it works for stocks just as well. "Buy the best, and only cry once." I still need some TA help to pick better entry points, but I've done well with that motto.

Today was exhuberant, some of it was rational, and some irrational. Now may be the time to think about moving over and "buying the best", regardless of the sector you are in.


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