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Subject:  Re: LT investors, think before you short Date:  3/17/2001  5:24 PM
Author:  spedblavio Number:  7751 of 44633

I am sorry I did not properly convey the point about shorting and being a professional. I meant that now, after 3000 NASDAQ points down, this Clinton/Gore bear market is either close to a violent conclusion, or gasoline is going go below $1.00 before long from lack of demand. And if someone, no matter how capable were to start to short stocks now, and they were not a professional trader, then they could be making either a mistake or get lucky which is, in and of itself, also a mistake - it just happened to turn out profitable this time.

Yes, the NASDAQ has already come down a long way, and your point is well taken. But that's not the only game in town. I'm seeing a number of 2 and 3 letter tickers with charts indicative of topping out and breaking down below support; issues that have done well since the NASDAQ bubble began to burst but are now starting to rollover just like those Tech charts did earlier.

Try comparing 3-year charts of GE and CSCO for example. GE's current situation looks very similar to CSCO breaking down in December. I doubt that GE will fall quite as hard or far as CSCO has, but I do think that as it looks right now, 30 is likely to be seen before 60 is. Just an illustration.

Not making any predictions, but it could be a different market's turn at the bear slide now. Sectors that benefitted from money leaving 4-letter Tech are now poised to reverse down, or already have. The DOW, until the last few days, was basically sideways and not sharing in the NASDAQ's decline.

Of course, this is all TA talk. I'm not a regular 'round this board, but it seems like folks here are more oriented towards fundamentals. So maybe we're speaking different languages. I don't currently agree with the sentiment that shorting requires serious fundamental research and valuation analysis any more than I feel that way about going long. But then, i'm a TA convert, so that's just my style. I'm not here to debate FA vs TA at all; to each his own.

But that's my take, FWIW. And I am short a handful of 2 and 3 letter stocks because those were the clearest charts/courses of action to me right now. I do have a feeling I'm going to have to sweat out a rally here at some point soon, but I didn't want to be left out of any further breakdown. So, rather than waiting for a reaction rally to short from a little better position, I went ahead and took the shorts and plan to hedge them with some DIA and/or QQQ longs if it looks like things are rallying. But the charts have me pretty convinced that my short positions are good for more than just very short term quickies.
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