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Subject:  Re: LT investors, think before you short Date:  3/18/2001  1:23 AM
Author:  XXLTINVESTOR Number:  7757 of 44633

B W Robin

I just checked one of my lists and :

The ones I posted on the fool boards were:

GPS in early May, it was triggered by the incredible reception that one store (H&M) got in NYC when it opened around 3/30, and I am covering that now for the 2nd time, again on a scale down. Still think that mgt has some big ongoing problems but in the low 20's with strength at 19-20, I think it needs an overall mkt crash to make it a good risk/reward short at these prices. Hate to bet on another 1000 after/on top of the prior 3000 and thereby bet against the fed, the new administration, all of the legislators who are up for job approval on 11/02, the big banks and inv banks, etc from here on. Love to see those cheerleader, know nothing TV “talking heads” if it peels off from here, but the effect on M/M six pack is something I pray will never happen. Disturbing memories of the 70's rise from a dark spot.

MWD, triggered by the “restructuring” of the senior Morgan exec out of MWD by the Dean Witter retailers and helped by their foolishness re Clinton.

WMT, triggered by the possibility that they were just too big to be able to get the rev gains they were projecting when JCP, hiring a great retailer who should turn that turkey around, and the umpteenth turn around prospect at KM that seems to be working, and GPS's Old Navy taking something back from WMT's higher price point clothing, all smelled like problem. Besides, the recently retired chmn, whom I though of as a bean counting jerk, used up all the surplus to establish his legacy, preventing any meaningful financial engineering to cover any ooops.

ORCL, triggered by the hiring of Clinton's press sect which goes straight to absence of believeability in enough stock buyer circles coupled with the misconduct of the founder (IMHO) re hiring PI's to assist Clinton in tagging MSFT all purposed on forcing techland to contribute to them or be similarly attacked. I still believe that the smarties abandoned the “Net service and infrastructure players must grow as fast as possible to control their space before someone else does it to them” thesis (no eps ever Net 1st during 1Q00) when the contra thought entered their brain that Clinton/Gore would attack those “to be created” gorillas if they and their VC's didn't come up with more cash (they had to add that into the amount needed to finance the losses), just like that administration did to tobacco and MSFT while leaving its similar sectors which were supporters, booze and ORCL, alone.

In addition,
CDO, have to decide if there is a case here of huge misconduct or just the garden variety hosing of the shareholders.
GTW, initially as a hedge against the other PC mfg I am long – Trigger was their server product revs were way behind CPQ, DELL, SUNW, HWP and IBM and not about to get any better
PPD, started out as a gut disbelief that anyone was going to spend 50% of HMO costs to have a lawyer on call in my lifetime, and although union workers would fight to make it a full pay, they were not going to accept it as a co-pay. Now, again, the issue is what, if any, misconduct occurred.
VIA, it's a focus thing. Trigger, founder has a huge ongoing girl friend distraction to go along with a bitter divorce fight at a time when total concentration is required. Trigger, $8mm to Hilly as a pay off for something when there is no way that amount can be recovered from all the books she'll ever have gost written for her (the Texas congressman who was “retired” for selling a ton of his book to unions came to mind). Basically, so far it has been a market short, ergo, not that good if the market bounces. Maybe Hannibul boffo revs has a positive effect for a while and the rest of their offerings will be less than boffo.
AMZN, harvesting it now because it is at that point where a deal will/could send shorts screaming to cover as brokers are pressured by pros to get that stock while small accounts are told nope can't get the stock to keep that position in your account so you've got to cover by “X” or be bought in.
CMGI, being harvested – what else is left.
ERICY, being harvested, don't want to bet that the Wallenbergs will let it become a $1 or $2 stock, so what is left.
ATHM, was a hedge against long term AOL positions. Currently going to harvest it, price
ITRA, may try to see if it can go on as a bulletin board fraction for ever, if not harvesting it, price
IVIL, didn't believe the “segregated” business plan, it is going to be harvested – to me risk is m&a.
TRLY, used as a hedge against YHOO long position, but when the civil war broke out between American Lycos execs and J Agut, backed up the truck, so to speak. Now it's entering the “hat size” zone where pricewise risk/reward becomes questionable.
COMS, disliked CEO's style since the late 90's, used it as a short hedge against the routers guys I liked for years, now it's just a blot on the pavement. Hoping for a mkt capitulation and then will cover, or at the 1st sign of a bounce – hat size is enough.

Ones I would short now… I've got an empty tank

Need a good bounce to re-scan the landscape. Looking for shorts with a reason that has nothing to do with up or down 300 NASDAC points and is not a “new econ” fundamental econ = downgrade of eps and revs story because customers are withholding or cutting back.

The pops in the past 90 days were in
certain financials, probably shorts in there, but I haven't crossed that Rubicon yet – the risk is Fed Res cuts pop them and get me to be emotional about it, a bad thing to be avoided at all cost

o&g, even if America's Arab friends wanted to help the global Western & Asian consumer with their disposable income, cash flow, reduced net worth problem , crazies would kill them if they did since Clinton used his influence on Barack in order to buy his legacy and the consequence was he got an emotionally charged killing war going in the middle east. Gas still the best long bet, oil is “even steven” unless one predicts a 70's style econ tank.

Retail – the sector usually leads coming out of an econ downturn – and this sector sure popped from late Dec to mid Feb.
Think S is a carcass to be fed upon by the others for quite a while, but it is so cheap, everybody knows mgt is not very competent, and technically doesn't look that weak when compared to the overall market. I'm using it as a partial hedge against long positions in JCP and KM and it is giving me that Prilosec(sp?) feel. Put that together with my struggle with ANF and…. maybe I'm gun shy re retailers

Hope that helps someone.

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