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URL:  https://boards.fool.com/pats37-your-wrote-16561062.aspx

Subject:  Pats37: Your wrote Date:  1/27/2002  10:17 AM
Author:  Malebranche Number:  1573 of 10889

>>Just the off balance sheet debt responsibility of XMSR is enough to make SIRI a better "speculative" investment as a long, not a short, if you believe in the value of satellite radio at this point.>>

As far as I know, XM does not owe Lehman $150 million at the end of this year if it does not get 200,000 subs.

Additionally, so far as I know, GM has not told XM it is not going to install XM in its cars till late 2003.

Ford and Mercedes have told Sirius they are not installing Sirius in their cars till "the quality is there". That is, at the earliest, in their 2004 models [See the Bloomberg piece below].

So far as I know, no radio manufacturer has told GM it is not going to have tuners available to 2004. One has told that to Sirius.


So far as I know, no after-market manufacturer has told XM it will not be making tuners for it b/c of chipset issues.

Talk is a major southern factory outlet that has told Sirius just that.

I have found Sirius management to be a mendacious one, continually pushing the envelope in the hope that something, somewhere will happen to save what has turned out to be a horrific technology mistake. Sirius has 34 lawsuits against it, and has tried to be as clandestine as possible about "discovery". Those lawsuits are now being combined into one.

David Margolese quit Sirius-- not because things were well, or things were coming back. He quit it because he knows what is coming.

So, till you look at the technology of Sirius, look at the pattern of lies its management has perpertrated the past two years, don't tell anyone sophisticated in both companies abut XM's debt relative to Sirius. Sirius is not going to be around in 18 months to pay off its debt.

Did yoiu ever ask yourself why Leon Black bought 10 million XM shares after he already owned Sirius?

The funny thing is that the shareholders suing SIRI will not be able to get much from Sirius when they win their suit-- and why? Because there will be no Sirius assets left.

I think Sirius has been a black eye to SDARS. I personally never thought that XM would be able to pull off what it did. I have XM in my auto. It works, it is a pleasure to have (especially for the price). XM's management has the company operating on all 12 cylinders.

When the air clears 18 months from now, only one SDARS will be operating at high speed-- XM.

As far as the recent Motley Fool piece on Sirius is concerned: the analysts from the Motley Fool remind me of rubes back in the southern Kansas plains, where I went to graduate school. Neither has taught me a thing about investing or making money. Fool Bill Mann three years ago wrote a nasty piece on one of Sirius' major shareholders. At the time (I did not own either XM or SIRI, and have never owned SIRI) it looked like a jaundiced piece so I am told (I did not read the piece back then). Now it looks like Mann may in fact have found a door at Sirius that opens into a way of doing business about which Mann was trying to warn everyone. Motley Fool, to its credit, printed the reply of the SIRI shareholder. Subsequent moves by Margolese and Donnelly at Sirius seem to indicate quite clearly that Mann was a lot closer to the truth in his crtiticism than he or anyone outside of Sirius' top management could have known.

Finally, as for myself, I think criminal indictments should be considered for two at Sirius for how it handled the chipset news fiasco/cover-up. Had Sirius worked, as it turns out, those who had it last year would have been worth a lot more today than they are. For that loss of money, which I believe constitutes part of a criminal fraud, the Federal Government should become active.



Technology News

01/10 06:41
Sirius Says DaimlerChrysler, Ford Delay Orders Until '04 Models
By David Evans


Las Vegas, Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.'s partners DaimlerChrysler AG and Ford Motor Co. won't install many of the radios needed to receive its programming until the 2004 model year, said Chief Executive Joseph Clayton.

Sirius will begin selling its satellite program service on Feb. 14 at more than 150 retailers in four cities for $12.95 a month. That's five months behind rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc., which has signed up more than 30,000 subscribers for $9.99 a month.

By Aug. 1, Sirius expects to begin selling its service nationally, said Clayton, who was hired as CEO last month. Problems with the integrated circuit chips used in its receivers delayed the launch for more than a year. He said he's confident the bugs have been fixed.

The delays allowed XM to become the first satellite radio company to have its receivers installed as factory equipment by an automaker. Clayton said Sirius doesn't expect many sales to automakers until the 2004 model year.

``In terms of mass volumes, that will be with the next generation of our product, where the costs will come down almost 50 percent,' said Clayton in an interview at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. ``That will be next year -- in the second half.'

Cadillac Receivers

Sirius plans to sell motorists 100 channels of digital programming, including about 60 commercial-free music stations. The service, which will initially be available in Denver, Phoenix, Houston and Jackson, Mississippi, costs $400 or more for a special radio receiver, antenna and installation.

In November, General Motors began offering XM receivers as a factory option on Cadillac DeVilles and Sevilles. On Monday, GM will announce plans to install XM devices in more than 20 models by the end of 2002, said XM CEO Hugh Panero.

Sirius is ``comfortable' that the first factory installations of its radios will be made by Bayerische Motoren Werke AG during the fourth quarter of 2002, said Clayton, in certain high-end BMW vehicles. He said DaimlerChrysler will follow in the last half of 2003, with Ford some time after that.

A spokeswoman for DaimlerChrysler said no decision has been made yet on when her company's divisions will begin installing Sirius radios.

``Those times are not set in stone,' said DaimlerChrysler spokeswoman Mary Beth Halprin. ``The quality has to be there.'

On Tuesday, Delphi Automotive Systems Corp., the largest auto- parts maker, won a contract from DaimlerChrysler to supply Sirius radios for Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Mercedes-Benz cars and light trucks and Freightliner LLC medium and heavy-duty trucks.

Delphi already makes XM receivers for General Motors.

Jeffrey Owens, president of the company's Delphi Delco Electronics unit, said Delphi is still waiting for the final chipset needed for testing and certification of the Sirius radios it will build for DaimlerChrysler.

``We should have had it a long time ago,' said Owens.

Bloomberg LLP, the parent of Bloomberg News, has agreements to distribute radio programming to Sirius and XM.



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