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URL: https://boards.fool.com/waxie-16781424.aspx
Subject: Waxie	Date: 2/22/2002 3:40 PM
Author: harmy	Number: 3612 of 6186
Barcoo I find this quite disturbing !! I've followed Waxie's posts for a while now and he is usually spot on with his calls. Although he is unconventional in his posting this is one of his more sober and (I believe) very accurate calls. It is probably the one main reason I've leaving the US market until things settle down which, judging from this article, maybe quite some time off. Regards Harmy http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16779815 We said MONTHS ago that the US banking system has to come into question based on the overall demise of the stock market, and world economic problems. Today we have JPM under heavy pressure and hitting a new fresh 52 week low (in spite of idiot analysts upgrading it only days ago!) due to increasing liquidity and debt concerns. We are advising you all to NOT have ANY longs once again. Perhaps investors are dumber than even I think, because for anyone not to see the writing on the wall is beyond ignorance. IF the US banking system pulls a Japan on us, and I think it ultimately will, then the rest of the stock market will implode on itself, sending securities to fresh lows in very short order. Whether or not this happens next week or next month, or in 6 months is anyone's guess, but it more than likely will happen at some point. Investors are gullable, they still believe that at some point the stock market will make new highs. Perhaps,anything is possible, but this Hubris should dictate otherwise. WE do not believe that the market will make new highs, and further we stick to our long term guns and call for this Bear market to last for SEVERAL more YEARS. We look at days like today where you should have obvious selling given the breath of news as further evidence that we have NOT reached bottoms on any index. Many so-called analysts will point to todays action and say the opposite. Jim Cramer, who I lose more and more respect for every time he opens his big fat trappy mouth, said last week just that. However, the overwhelming evidence points to further losses this year and still further for a while until we reach fair and reasonable valuations. While stocks prices have come down, we have yet to see analysts come out with sell ratings. This is quite disturbing and unfortunate. Goldman Sachs once again today upgraded CSCO. This is probably the 30th time they have done that in the last 2 years. Why? Every shred of evidence points to further downside with very limited upside to CSCO. They have been calling it long from the $70s all the way down. At some point wouldn't you think they'd just give TRUTHFUL info on the company? Unfortunately the American public wants desperately to believe that the stock market has to come back. It doesn't and its doubtful it will for a LONG LONG time. In the final analysis we have to determine that the other SHOES have already dropped, with more to come, but the problem is the same as the age old question - "If I tree falls in the forest and nobody hears it, did it still fall?" The stock market tree(s) have already fallen, unfortunately no one seems to have heard it... See ya on the other side, WAXIE
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