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Subject:  Re: Roth Portfolio Management Advise... Date:  4/16/2002  7:25 PM
Author:  TheVlad Number:  4350 of 6968

Two of arguably the best investors that have ever existed -- Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch -- both admit to not being able to time the market. With how intelligent these guys are and how hard they work (both are essentially workaholics), I would say my own chances of success in market timing aren't too good.

I don't want to argue about Buffet. I would just note that his style of "investing" is unique. He is into buying businesses and not in the sense that you may think as in looking at the purchase of stock as buying a piece of a business. No, he's literally into buying businesses either outright or in significant chunks which guarantees him that nothing would happen at the company without his approval. That's a totally different proposition for which market timing is not crucial.

And considering market timing is completely unnecessary to getting excellent results, I can't comprehend why I should bother.

And how do you exactly figure that to be true?

I mentioned research that shows that fundamentals of the company influence only 20% of the changes in price with the rest (80%!) influenced by overall market and the sector the company is in.

So, again, how timing is completely unnecessary?


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