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Subject:  Re: price risk vs. information risk Date:  7/26/2002  5:20 PM
Author:  TWA40 Number:  214 of 297


I'm willing to bet we've already seen bottoms on things like MRK, JNJ, BRK.a, GE, PEP, SWY, SGP and a whole host of other oddballs (AVZ, GLK, GMT, TMK) that I would have loved to buy at mid-week prices (not that some of them aren't still relatively cheap). But it would be hard for me to pull the trigger on MRK at $46 when I know I missed an opportunity at $39 (notwithstanding that I also wanted to buy it in the low $50's last spring--I know it doesn't make any sense).

And I agree with you on high yield bonds. I'll probably sign up for Vanguard LT Corporate (VWESX) when I start my 401(k) in another month (I'd go with VWEHX if it was an option).

I think there will be some major blow-ups in banks, and in some more over-leveraged telecoms. FBF is acting like it wants to blow up. F and T probably ought to blow up. But there should also be tremendous opportunity on the long side if you can avoid the landmines.

And I'm especially bullish (albeit selectively) because I can't find anything obvious to short anymore.


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