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Subject:  Re: OT: KISS Date:  8/10/2002  4:09 PM
Author:  FoolMeOnce Number:  73409 of 883341

galeno writes:
2. There is NO luck involved IF the FIRE wannabe is thinking long term. If you think short-term (like most on this board) then I guess you can talk about luck. won't get to least not at a young age.

If you want to retire very early then you must think short term. To retire at the age achieved by you and intercst, you have but twenty years or so to accumulate your starting nut. The markets over periods as short as 15 to 20 years are fully capable of dealing relatively poor returns. As the safe withdrawal study purports to prove, this need not be an intractable problem once you are retired, if you have the constitution to stick with the program in the face of having a substantial portion of your assets wiped out. Such poor performance during the accumulation phase however is another issue. You cannot apply the lessons of history to the distribution phase and ignore those very same lessons as they apply to the more difficult problem of accumulating assets in the first place.

The papers are full of stories right now about people who are delaying their retirements due to the effect of short term market performance on their strategies calling for heavy investment in equities. Were they stupid for following the course you recommend, or merely unlucky?


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