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Subject:  Re: OT: KISS Date:  8/10/2002  5:59 PM
Author:  Daryll40 Number:  73415 of 882486

FMO Writes: For someone desiring very early retirement, you either get lucky or you fail. I prefer to eliminate luck as a consideration to the greatest extent possible.

FMO was referring to the stock market. I agree that luck DOES play a large part. But there really is no way to avoid this. OK, so you do the heavy real estate thing...and what happens if real estate crashes and burns as has happened in the past? Or what if Congress changes tax laws drastically, like they did in 1986, and killed a whole generation of real estate investors over night, who had properties based on the old tax system that became worth MUCH less under the new tax system?
Of what if it's 1941 and we enter a war where you have to get drafted or work? Or what if The United States has peaked, like England did just up to WW1?

I am not predicting ANY of the above. Only pointing out that reducing exposure to stocks increases exposure to other "luck" based items. In the end, much of life is based on luck. There's not much we can do about it except crawl under a rock. And a lizard might bite you there!

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