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URL:  https://boards.fool.com/a-person-wants-to-prevent-himself-from-dying-of-17678132.aspx

Subject:  Re: non-MasterMind will RE Date:  8/13/2002  12:29 AM
Author:  nas90skog Number:  73906 of 881728

A person wants to prevent himself from dying of heart disease. He reads articles, does the literature search and comes to the conclusion that he must become a highly trained athlete. He dedicates himself to it for many years and benefits in a variety of ways. As he ages, his ankles go , his knees wear out and his back gives him trouble. As he does further research, he finds data that depicts human nature. It shows him that in spite of all the hype, very few people can pursue an aggressive exercise regimen beyond a certain age. He thinks, if I had known that in the beginning, perhaps I would have taken a more balanced approach to things.

A person wants to prevent himself from dying a financial death. He reads articles, does the literature search and comes to the conclusion that he must LBYM, be a LTBH'er of passive index funds, and never deviate from a 75/25 mix if he wants a 4% withdrawal for 30 years. One day he is sitting there looking at his portfolio that has declined 50%. He runs across some data that depicts human nature. It shows him that in spite of all the hype, very few people can pursue an aggressive portfolio mix through large market drops. He thinks, if I had known that in the beginning, perhaps I would have taken a more balanced approach to things. It is hard for me to understand why Hocus takes so much heat for wanting to work towards the end of including data that depicts human behavior. I see nothing in his approach other than that. Obviously others see more to it than that.

I understand that we are all responsible for our own decisions and must bear the consequences. Risk tolerance is not something that is inherent but something that is learned. It is unfortunate that some have to lose 50% of their portfolio to learn that they do not have the same risk profile as Intercst, for example. Statistical depiction of human behavior is pretty basic stuff. If one were to take the SWR study and include a curve that showed how likely it was that a cross section of the population were able to adhere to its tenets, it would allow people to make more informed decisions going forward. If they knew that 40% of the people backed out of the market when it encountered a 50% drop (just #'s I am pulling out of a hat) I have no doubt that a number of them would identify with that group, and to prevent that, would adjust their allocation to be more conservative and reduce their SWR goals. They wouldn't have the potential of blue sky returns, but they would certainly reduce their chances of retiring in hell.

I get the feeling that some people want to use their FIRE accomplishment as a means of status that separates them from the downtrodden masses. Human nature. There are some who want to find a way to spread the lessons of FIRE in some way shape or form, to the masses in hopes that they can benefit.

I find it unfortunate that people of means and gifts can be so thoughtless towards each other and on top of it, find it funny. Again, human nature. It is, I remind myself, nothing more than a message board.

And Galeno.....save your trash talk. I have also been here since 1999 and don't recall one insult or snide comment you have uttered that brought with it any more creativity or wit than those I remember scratched into the walls of the bathroom stalls during my days in middle school. I occasionally enjoy a battle of wits, but will not duel with an unarmed man. Why am I reminded of the wimpy little emperor played by Joaquin Phoenix in Gladiator.

nas90skog
the egos on the bus go round and round








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