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Subject:  Re: Dow 5000, by Bill Gross Date:  9/25/2002  5:37 PM
Author:  solasis Number:  231 of 297

my personal a/d line is thus - out of 18 positions, 6 are above april 01 lows, 10 above 9/01 lows, and all but one (AMAT) above july 02 low. noting even poster child of bubble CSCO above 9/01 lows and right near april 01 lows. bear markets end when stocks stop going down.

doing my own groping for grunions to counter pimco propaganda. looked at long term records of snp earnings post 1945. regressing on semi-log yields 45 dollars of earnings for 2003. snp therefore selling at 18 times long term earnings trend line. looking back at last few decades when P/E similar i note that interest rates were much, much higher then than now. so back to groping - maybe low interest rates will support higher P/E for stocks or maybe stocks continued P/E contraction indicating that bonds overvalued or you believe long term earnings trend broken permanently and 45 unrealistic number.

looking at those three alternatives, i would bet on supposition 1 or 2 long before supposition 3.


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