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Subject:  Re: Poll: Hocus' Retirement Secrets Date:  11/20/2002  11:29 AM
Author:  LivAboard Number:  83454 of 888066

I voted "he lost me after the first paragraph", but I thought I understood what he was getting a few months ago when he first started posting, and I had a higher tollerance for 5000 word essays.

Basically what he's saying is that he would get a higher safe withdrawl rate from a 50/50 stock allocation than an 80/20 because he doesn't have the nuts to stick out an 80/20 through a bear like this, and would have sold at one the the 5 year lows.

That is why math won't help him, because you can't put a formula to the human behavior that would cause him to sell out of his 80/20. So we can't figure out what his safe withdrawl rate would be for an 80/20(lemming) portfolio would be. We can only tell him what it would be for a 50/50, which brings up a number he doesn't want to hear.

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