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Subject:  2004 Date:  2/27/2004  3:11 PM
Author:  solasis Number:  257 of 297

to keep this board from being mothballed i throw out the following
four risks to US stks that i see on horizon
1. terrorism / unforeseen conflict
these days this one is self explanatory. but in case of a 5-10% hiccup from an attack - the resultant dip would probably be brief and buyable.

2. interest rates rise
this one depends on what the dollar does i think. if the dollar is flat or slightly up while interest rates go up and stock earnings continue up, it probably is a non event and stocks, confoudning the chronic bears, might actually benefit from a rotation out of bonds. but if any 2 of those three factors get simultaneously weak it seems to this observer that the stocks could be in for an air pocket later this year or early next.

3. oil price spike.
sustained high energy prices are effectively a big tax on goods consumption. stocks have been knocked off kilter three times in the past by oil price shocks. if oil continues to go up 2004 could be the fourth.

4. china bust. every boom is followed by a bust. the asian rim countries boomed in the 90's then busted in 97. the US as an emerging market economy was boom/bust. even japan had its boom/bust. china is no different. when china goes bust, the ripples will be big. the timing is of course very uncertain. but this one is an inevitable.

any and all thoughts welcomed

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