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Subject:  Re: A Primer on Stagflation Date:  8/28/2004  5:22 PM
Author:  EddieLuck Number:  8107 of 10594

Most of the increase in payroll employment over the last few months has been in temp. and part-time work. Casual day labor through Labor Ready et al, or illegal day labor is probably counted in the household survey but not in the payroll survey. My self employment (securities arbitrage trading) would probably count in the household survey, but would not be in the payroll survey. I made more at my career job before I retired.

So a lot of the things unemployed people can do to survive after their unemployment compensation runs out, show up in the household survey only. Outperformance in the household survey could be interpreted as a rise in desperation, and a growing proportion of survival-level jobs to flourishing careers. Just as you would expect after a long period of lagging employment growth and outsourcing.

I think the administration is making an error in telling us how great things are. It encourages the unemployed or under-employed to vote Democrat, because the Republicans must seem to them to be either out of touch with reality or uncaring about their condition. This group now constitutes a voting bloc that is quite big enough to swing the election on its own, yet is not yet getting properly sucked up to by the republicans.

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