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Subject:  earnings warnings Date:  9/21/2004  5:34 PM
Author:  solasis Number:  278 of 297

as we all know the market can be very efficient in pricing in expected difficulties. here is another case in point, from ISI and jon markman at tscm

full text:

As if you really needed more evidence of the perversity of the stock market, analysts at ISI Group in New York have determined that the greater the number of negative preannouncements in the month before the end of a quarter, the better stocks tend to do at the start of the next quarter..............Intuitively, you would guess that a high rate of negative preannouncements would lead to declines in share values over the following month. And you would think that a low rate of negative preannouncements would tend to lead to stronger share values in the subsequent month. But you would be wrong on both counts, according to ISI.............Earnings estimate data in June this year, according to the report, showed that the negative-to-positive preannouncement ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 was less than 1.0. That shouldn't have been considered good news. Instead, says ISI, it was a sign that most positive earnings scenarios for the quarter had been priced into equities -- and that a lousy July was around the corner. And that is what happened, as the S&P 500 sank a whopping 3.4% in the month.....Conversely, then, it may be great news that preannouncements have been so wildly awful this month. According to First Call, the negative/positive preannouncement ratio for the S&P 500 in September so far is 1.9. Analysts' earnings expectations for the coming quarter have thus become gloomy. Indeed, they're the most dreary since the third quarter of 2003. The ratio for tech stocks in the S&P 500 is a touch higher than for the broad market, at 2.0...............Here's a brief glance back at the recent historical record to show how this has played out before:

A very high negative-to-positive preannouncement ratio of 2.9 in March 2003 came just ahead of a one-month change in the S&P 500 of 8.1% in April 2003, according to ISI and First Call data.

A ratio of 1.7 in September 2003 preceded a 5.5% gain the next month.

The highest negative preannouncement ratio of the past five years, 6.8 in March 2001, preceded a 7.7% gain in April 2001.

Likewise, a 5.3 ratio in June 1997 preceded a 7.8% July that year.

Conversely, a quiescent preannouncement ratio of 1.0 in March 2000 preceded a 3.1% decline in April that year.

And a modest 1.0 ratio in June 2002 preceded a 7.9% plunge in July that year.

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