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Subject:  New Voters, Pace U's poll, ROE effect: Date:  11/1/2004  4:13 AM
Author:  MLD38 Number:  627656 of 2359505

New Voters, Pace U's poll, ROE effect:

Pace University, conducted for MTV's "Rock the Vote" effort:
Page 21 in Conclusions:
..."there are two critical questions about new voters:
1) Will they turn-out?, and
2) Will they affect the outcome of this election?
In answer to the first question, our poll provides persuasive evidence that new voters will turn-out. On the second question, however, new voters – like other Americans – appear evenly divided."....

Thursday, October 28, 2004, OpinionJournal:

In With the New

..."One of John Kerry's secret weapons on Election Day is supposed to be "new voters"--those who registered for the first time after 2000, especially young people. We've long been skeptical about this, especially because the Roe effect suggests young people would trend Republican. A new poll from Pace University, conducted for MTV's "Rock the Vote" effort, bears out our suspicion. "The president leads Kerry among new voters, 48% to 44%," the survey finds. More Roe effect evidence: 38% of the new voters in its survey "consider themselves 'born-again' or 'evangelicals,' " vs. just 23% of the general public in a Gallup poll.
Of course, since these people have never voted in a presidential election before, it's even harder than usual to gauge who is a "likely" voter. It's possible that the pro-Kerry segment of the new-voter demographic will turn out in greater numbers, though there's no particular reason to think this is the case. In any case, the poll report opens with a quote from Democratic attack dog James Carville: "You know what they call a candidate who's counting on a lot of new voters? A loser."....

Speaking of the Roe Effect . . .

A brief report in BusinessWeek bolsters one of the premises of the Roe effect--that children tend to adopt their parents' political views: "An Oct. 12 Harris Poll found only 15% of Republicans come from Democratic families and just 12% of Democrats have Republican relatives."

The Oregonian, meanwhile, reports that conservatism is now cool on college campuses:"....

..."The article observes that "some professors worry that such strong family influence and career focus, as well as the availability of media that caters to specific ideological tastes, might limit the level of exploration students are willing to try."

Didn't left-wing baby boomers use to be in favor of questioning authority?"...

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