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Subject:  Re: Religionists miss the scale of things Date:  3/14/2005  8:23 AM
Author:  cnaylor Number:  143716 of 519874

Now try and poke away.

As if somehow i should be intimidated by his intellectual prowess?

i think that somehow you are so impressed with yourself that you forgot what the point really is.

Come back when you've done your homework.


Arrogance is one thing and ignorance another. But combine them with search-engine capability and you really have a monster. I'll bet your sermons are a hoot pastor.

So first, we have to determine how many possibilities exist given that there are 206 bones. In other words, how many combinations could we randomly make out of the 206 bones. A system of two parts (1 x 2) has two possible combinations...1,2 or 2,1. A system of three parts (1 x 2 x 3) has 6...1,2,3 or 1,3,2 or 2,3,1 or 2,1,3 or 3,1,2, or 3,2,1. And so on to 206 we go (1 x 2 x 3 x 4....x 206). This is called 206 factorial and it is approximately 10 to the 388th power. If this experiment could be completed every second for every single second available in some evolutionary estimates of 10 billion years...that is somewhere around 10 to the 18th power worth of seconds to work with. This produces a probability of 10 to the (388-10=370) power. The chance of getting the bones all in their correct position is less than one chance in 10 billion years.

Your lack of knowledge regarding the nature of DNA and probabilities is stunning in its depth pastor. Your model has no relation to actual theories of abiogenesis for a number of reasons (see the article I cited in my last post http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/abioprob.html) and thus is not useful. Some of the most powerful are:

1) Abiogenesis does not theorize that the DNA molecule jumped from a completely disorganized state to a strand of DNA in one step. This is the biggest fallacy continually propagated by creationists. There are believed to be a number of steps involved in the formation of life. At each step, the probabilities are vastly greater than those you imply for a strand of DNA.

2) Creationists ignore the fact that multiple 'trials' were going on at any given time. They pretend that there was only one 'set' of DNA molecules in existence that all needed to find each other and hook up before life could be born. But the planet is vast and was teeming with life's precursors - combining, failing, and combining again and again and again. Based on probabilities taking into account actual conditions, there was ample time for self-replicating molecules to form and evolve. To put it in terms you're familiar with, I'll use your faulty example: if there were 10 billion sets of disorganized bones lying around, you'd expect to have a working skeleton in 1 year.
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