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Subject:  Re: PDLI - Tinker and All Date:  6/11/2006  3:05 PM
Author:  TMFBreakerTinker Number:  27144 of 116519

<<<Why not consider playing the whole Tysrabi issue through PDLI and dump ELN?

Just musing.....>>>

When Elan crashed, multiple people expressed that they thought buying Biogen for the Tysabri issue was the way to go.

In regards to PDLI, PDL will get a 3-4% royalty on Tysabri. That would be $30 million for each $1 billion in sales. Maybe $180 million if the best of the best case occurred, or $30-$45 million from most consensus estimates. Tysabri is good money for PDLI but not something that will multiply the stock. PDLI stands on its own rights, but Tysabri royalties are just a small part of it. So be crazy to invest in PDLI as a Tysabri proxy.

Elan Alzheimer drug has the very real potential to sell more than all these drugs in question that we are discussing including Tysabri. Which is one reason to stay in Elan, Tysabri or no Tysabri. But PDLI stands well on its own right.

For all these drugs, we are looking out to about 2009 for market approval, including AAB-001 from ELAN, and Nuvion and Ularitide from PDLI. So it takes patience, and buying on the cyclical swings I think.

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