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Stocks R / Royal Caribbean Cruises


Subject:  RCL and the future Date:  9/23/2006  10:33 PM
Author:  artbros Number:  468 of 490

It appears that RCL may be worth entering. It is at the top of its recent downtrend. Granted, that's a bit of a risky move... but if it breaks through, it appears likely to create support and continue to move up. More aggressive buyers picked it up as it bounced off the bottom of its recent long term trend line. More jumped in as the MACD went positive and the stochatics rolled into positive territory. Volume is rising slightly and we've seen some solid spikes as various technical indicators have gone green.

Add to that that fuel appears to have more than a prayer's chance of getting cheaper. The recent hurricane season has not been as destructive as the trend suggested it might be. Passenger traffic is up. Profits are improving. Boomers are aging (and cruising). Only 16% of the American public has ever been on a cruise. The relative costs of cruising make it a reasonable value. Your hotel floats from place to place while you eat and sleep in relative comfort aboard a "all inclusive resort." Barriers to entry are high, considering the billion dollar capital cost of building a new ship as well as the long lead time it takes to actually order and then launch a ship (at least four to five years).

Insiders and large institutional money have both been net buyers at market (better than when they use $2.45 options to buy it). Mean analyst expectations indicate the stock should go to $45. Revisions to EPS forecasts could take it higher.

Seasonal disruptions caused by hurricanes and high oil prices are most of the reason why the stock was pummeled. Perhaps now is a good time to enter the stock. Any opinions?
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