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Subject:  Re: October sales Date:  11/3/2006  2:31 PM
Author:  Milligram46 Number:  5633 of 7023

1) Mish has been calling a recession is six months away for the better part of two years. I can predict the sun will rise or set with the same accruacy, it WILL eventually happen.

2) Looking at housing, manufacturing, a continued job market that isn't great, declining auto sales, and overall consumer confidence, this holiday season is very, VERY critical to the US economy. I'm not quite on board with Mish yet, but there are a lot of technical signs pointing to a pending recession. The two classic signs? A sharp spike in energy costs followed by a spike in the stock market six to nine months later while consumer spending is tailing off and manufacturing down. These aren't good signs.

3) Ford in particular would be brutalized in a downturn, I think GM is far better positioned through their product mix and the nature of the planning. Remember, GM isn't only selling trucks well, models like the Cobalt and Impala are in the top ten selling vehicles for the year list - and I seriously cannot remember when GM had two best sellers that were cars and only one truck on there. Also remember, those sales are not be driving by fleet sales, by real consumer purchases - also a good thing. Ford's car line up in particular is weak, and Chrysler's car line up is way to thirsty. The slap a HEMI into anything with four wheels strategy has not been a good thing.
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