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Subject:  Re: Going Short on Name Brands... Date:  11/7/2006  5:48 PM
Author:  Steve819 Number:  27 of 188


Thanks. I'm pretty mixed on shorting brand names in CAPS, as it is very hard to do successfully (duh!). This is obviously a great learning experience, as we have to do some more DD here to be right, as we are walking these roads alone in many cases as you say.

I try to pick brand names with narrow moats like CTRP,TZOO and REDF or stocks that have recently disappointed like RHAT and OSTK as they are often good candidates for further disappointment. Furthermore, once the shine is off the stock, it tends to drift down to a more sane valuation as the mo-mo players/GOOGly eyed bulls's thesis is destroyed.

Stuff like RIMM, CRM, SBUX, AAPL and the like, I just don't want to leap in front of the train, so to speak. I know they are overvalued, but not quite at insane valuations, and the bull thesis business wise is relatively intact.

It's a difficult tightrope.

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