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Subject:  Re: Your Brain Wants You To Be Poor Date:  2/23/2007  12:12 PM
Author:  SeattlePioneer Number:  2773 of 122178

<<Sure you did. You said it was a "worst case scenario." Now we agree that it is not a "worst case scenario", but only one which has worked in this country, not others, and not in times of runaway inflation as we have seen in other countries, nor in catastrophic wars which have been lost, and perhaps not in other exigent circumstance.

This is true, but the "rule of thumb", like almost all rules of thumb, are simply stated for practicality. And under the scenarios you describe above, pretty much nothing (no strategy) can survive with an intact retirement afterwards. So, it isn't practical to consider it.

I guess you are both right. I did say that American history over the past one 150 years was a worst case scenario. At other times I've pointed out that things could be a LOT worse, just as Goofyhoofy did.

Still, as you and intercst have pointed out, it provides a useful guide to what people might expect in terms of bad news for a retirement portfolio.

If things really go to hell in a handbasket, a lot of people will probably be scratching for a living who hadn't expected to.

My general rule of thumb has been to prepare for the worst that is very likely to happen, while hoping for the best. I'm satisfied that intercst's analysis meets that standard of mine.

Seattle Pioneer
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