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URL:  https://boards.fool.com/how-about-1968-to-1998-that-hasnt-often-looked-25489729.aspx

Subject:  Re: 30-Year Retirment at 4.5% Withdrawal Rate Date:  5/13/2007  2:13 PM
Author:  telegraph Number:  57346 of 90856

How about 1968 to 1998? that hasn't often looked good..

but worse.....

And if I look at your 1927 on... you have two good years, followed by a lot of bad years.

If you had retired in 1929 with 1 million... or, whatever the year you have with the 14.6% drop.....

The first year.... - 14.6
so guves you
million minus 4.5% or 45K
and loss of value of 14.6% on the amount after withdrawal, giving you $815,570.



The second year -28.6 down....
Take out 4.5% leaving 778,869
and loss of value down to $556,113

The third year....down 44.5%
take out your 4.5%.....which is only now about half of what you started with......
leaving $531,088
and the loss that year is down to $294,753

ouch

and the fourth year....down 9.4%.....
your take at 4.5% is about 12.5K, and there is no inflation, so that is what you get to live on......
so we have $281,490 after your withdrawal...
and that year it loses 9.4%.... down to $255030....

NOw you are down to 25% of what you started at, both for principle and for income...... no more 45K a year....think 1/4 of that...11.7K maybe....before taxes if any.......

Down to dog food diet.......

Yes????

An all stock portfolio is very subject to any declines in the first five-7 years of retirement......

t.






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