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Subject:  Re: What's in Your Portfolio? Date:  8/14/2007  11:46 PM
Author:  TMFKitKat Number:  1378 of 1817

Hey Jim

Thanks for the links--excellent insightful series of articles as usual.
I would have been highly surprised if NILE had bothered to adjust for deferred tax assets or options. It would have shown extraordinary attention to detail which you never see in companies reporting free cash flow.After adjustments NILE is cash flow positive so that part is not terrible. It's what you expect from companies reporting cash flow--no true accounting for real adjusted cash flow. I always take it fwiw--zero. I was hoping for some very juicy out and out plain wrong and misleading manipulation *sigh* I love accounting malfeasance.

What is striking is the notion that no price is too high to pay for NILE or Chipotle or a handful of other TMF stocks that ride the wave of positive sentiment and momentum. It sounds so 2000. There was a thread somewhere at HG where folks were lashing themselves for selling on valuation concerns for some HG stocks-- valuation is becoming an antiquated and somewhat frumpy approach to picking and holding stocks. In hindsight its always obvious--how much would you have paid for Iomega at the top? As helpless captives of daily double digit price gains that seemed to go on forever how could you sell or having sold, how could you live with your stupid decision? I see similarities to historical precedents and the attitude that no price is too high to pay for some companies just seems wrong.If you think value matters and its going to be a long hard haul to get NILE to live up to 115X earnings at 20% growth, then maybe it was right to pass at $98 and avoid the $16 downdraft.

There is also no doubt that NILE will crack $200 per share (since I am not a buyer) and I will wish I had bought at $98. I am the idiot that passed on Google at $175

NILE: 82.00
-4.50 (-5.20%)

Previous Close 86.50
Market Cap 1.29B
P/E 94.25
Volume 346,669
Day's Range 82.00 - 89.48
Avg. Volume (3m) 388,806
52-Week Range 33.05 - 98.50
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