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URL:  https://boards.fool.com/mr-goodbuy-oct-28-2007-26040302.aspx

Subject:  Mr. Goodbuy Oct. 28, 2007 Date:  10/28/2007  5:48 PM
Author:  JackCade Number:  28068 of 42384

Looking for Mr. Goodbuy (data from Oct 28, 2007)

A mechanical approach to finding BMWm candidate stocks

Table 1: Sorted ascending on RMS

See a brief explanation below the tables.  And see a longer explanation
  in BMW Board message 27893.

Selected on: Manifest Quality > 65; BMWm Expected Return >= 30%
  PAR less than MIPAR+15% (this week 9.6% + 15% = 24.6%), with
  at least 6 years of BMWm-type data.

Above the line = TMF CAPS rating >= 90%

* = RMS <= -1.5
+ = At least 16 Yrs of data, Stewardship = A|B, M* = 4|5, CAPS % >= 95

Tick  Yrs   Qual   PAR   QPZ    RMS    RF   CAPS  CAPS   P/E  M* Stew Fin  EPS
  				               %     #                Str  Pred
CL*    30   84.8   9.5  0.47  -2.62  2.70   98.6   145    25   3   B  98   99
BRO*   10   79.1  14.1  0.63  -2.37  1.67   94.4    18    19   4   A  98   84
AVP*   25   68.1   8.0 -2.39  -2.29  2.08   92.7    41    32   4   B  80   75
LNCR*  15   79.6  16.4  1.22  -2.27  1.84   90.9    22    14   3   C  76   85
SYY*+  20   83.8  14.9  1.52  -2.14  1.54   96.1    77    21   4   B  94   93
MDT*+  25   79.4  16.7  1.25  -2.11  2.46   95.1   143    19   5   B  96  100
CTAS*  16   74.2  13.4 -0.27  -1.96  1.81   92.3    13    18   5   A  96   99
AIG*   20   73.6  17.3  0.51  -1.94  1.94   94.8   250    10   4   B  98   70
EXBD*   8   76.3  14.5  0.29  -1.90  1.48   92.2    77    35   4   C  94   80
WAG*   20   83.6  19.7  2.56  -1.87  1.74   93.5   169    20   5   B 100   99
PEP*   30   88.1   9.2  0.90  -1.83  1.77   97.7   395    19   3   B 100   99
AMGN*  20   66.0  12.7 -1.66  -1.81  2.60   91.6   323    16   5   D 100   88
BUD*   20   71.3  10.3 -1.40  -1.79  1.40   91.0   233    20   3   A  92   95
CAH*   16   73.5  15.4  0.07  -1.69  1.74   95.7    70    32   4   C  90   86
AAP*    6   72.0  16.2  0.02  -1.63  1.32   93.8    16    15   5   B  57   56
ZMH*    6   72.9  20.6  1.14  -1.56  1.38   98.1   105    18   5   B  99   74
AEO*    6   75.6  18.4  1.06  -1.54  1.56   93.8   306    13   4   C  91   56
LLTC*+ 16   78.9  22.8  2.53  -1.54  2.10   95.3    43    23   4   B  97   66
BMS*   20   70.6  11.6 -1.21  -1.52  1.31   90.0    20    16   5   A  83   91
MHP    20   86.7  14.7  1.91  -1.45  1.32   92.4    66    18   5   B  99   97
SNV    16   75.1  16.0  0.45  -1.30  1.55   90.9    11    13   5   B  96   98
PAYX+  16   88.0  16.1  2.42  -1.25  1.79   97.2   106    29   4   A  96   86
WYE    25   73.1   8.5 -1.52  -1.25  1.45   90.5    63    15   3   C  83   98
KSS    15   87.9  19.8  3.23  -1.13  1.70   91.3   104    16   3   C  90   85
VAR    16   68.2  11.3 -1.64  -1.12  1.36   98.6    71    27   3   B  90   89
DIS+   40   66.9  11.6 -1.77  -1.06  1.74   95.0   418    16   4   B  87   73
JNJ+   35   74.3  13.4 -0.25  -1.03  1.45   95.2  1018    18   5   B 100   99
QCOM   16   73.6  14.4 -0.14  -1.02  1.85   90.0   219    25   4   A  89   61
OMC    16   71.4  11.5 -1.11  -0.96  1.49    100    16    19   3   B  91   96
HIBB   11   83.5  18.5  2.27  -0.93  1.33   94.1    17    20   -   -  85   94
==============================================================================
POOL*  12   65.9  21.1  0.19  -4.78  3.18   67.3    49    14   -   -  55   92
MCO*    7   75.1  18.5  1.00  -4.50  1.86   83.2   119    14   5   B  83   89
GCI*   20   79.1  17.3  1.34  -3.77  3.08   37.0    27     9   3   D  92   86
CAKE*  15   79.6  23.6  2.82  -2.98  2.30   85.3    95    21   5   D  78   92
FITB*  16   68.1  16.9 -0.41  -2.75  3.21   27.8    54    14   5   B  85   82
BBBY*  15   90.4  21.0  3.87  -2.71  2.49   85.0   147    16   5   D  98   89
SBUX*  15   84.2  18.9  2.47  -2.69  1.73   81.3   705    32   5   B  91   96
LOW*   20   77.9  21.4  2.07  -2.67  2.20   83.9   242    14   5   B  99   92
FDO*   20   71.0  15.5 -0.28  -2.63  2.89   78.6    28    16   4   B  90   94
WMT*   35   75.1  12.7 -0.29  -2.62  6.00   71.5   491    15   5   B  96   99
EWBC*   8   76.6  13.8  0.18  -2.60  1.72   81.8    11    13   4   B  88   92
TCB*   16   75.7  15.0  0.31  -2.49  1.99   60.0    15    11   5   A  66   90
MTB*   16   69.2  12.2 -1.29  -2.47  1.57   42.3    26    14   4   A  98   96
HOG*   20   87.4  18.1  2.77  -2.39  2.57   76.7   193    12   4   B  97   90
ASBC*  20   72.0  12.3 -0.85  -2.03  1.42   45.5    11    13   5   B  94   96
SLM*   16   76.5  18.9  1.30  -1.84  1.67   69.2    52    19   3   A  65   94
LLY*   25   69.8  12.3 -1.18  -1.80  2.08   87.0    77    26   4   B  97   96
WSM*   16   78.2  14.5  0.58  -1.80  1.98   88.5    26    18   4   B  83   76
KNX*   13   87.7  11.8  1.42  -1.77  1.45   68.4    19    19   -   -  73   92
WL*    16   76.9  14.5  0.39  -1.73  1.37   66.7     9    18   5   B  97   99
BBT*   16   66.4  17.9 -0.44  -1.64  1.61   78.9    38    13   5   C  96   84
AVY*   20   73.3  15.1 -0.03  -1.53  1.51   75.0    16    16   4   B  91   91
WFMI*  15   80.5  11.9  0.35  -1.53  1.55   89.1   612    36   5   B  87   69
ZION   16   69.5  14.2 -0.80  -1.49  1.77   75.0    16    11   5   C  91   97
CMA    16   67.7  13.7 -1.18  -1.47  1.61   39.1    23    10   5   B  94   87
WFC    20   77.1  16.5  0.86  -1.47  1.44   80.1   196    13   4   B  96   83
ROST   20   72.9  16.3  0.18  -1.38  1.69   88.9     9    15   4   C  98   87
DBD    25   71.5  13.0 -0.77  -1.29  1.44   87.5     8    40   5   B  53   87
MER    30   66.4  18.9 -0.22  -1.24  1.62   64.7   201     7   4   B  96   66
AJG    20   72.4  16.4  0.13  -1.19  1.32   50.0    12    19   5   B  90   82
TJX    16   69.3  13.0 -1.10  -1.13  1.53   85.3    34    20   3   B  94   94
SPLS   16   87.9  17.1  2.63  -1.09  1.44   88.6    70    16   5   C  95   89
SCSS    9   67.2  15.8 -0.79  -1.07  2.43   87.2   893    16   -   -  97   49
FWRD   14   90.0  13.7  2.19  -1.06  1.54   88.5    26    19   5   B  87   78
HAR    16   66.5  13.2 -1.48  -0.99  1.38   88.5    26    18   -   -  88   68
C      30   77.7  17.2  1.11  -0.84  1.46   80.2   514    10   5   B  99   96
MSFT   20   84.0  17.0  2.01  -0.81  1.69   89.4  1228    23   3   A  94   94
KSWS   17   77.1  18.1  1.22  -0.53  1.34   89.1    46    14   5   C  75   63
NVR    22   74.4  18.6  0.92  -0.37  1.75   12.9   132     7   4   F  92   66


==============================================================================


Looking for Mr. Goodbuy (data from Oct 28, 2007)

A mechanical approach to finding BMWm candidate stocks

Table 2: Sorted descending on QPZ (Quality z-score+PAR z-score)

See a brief explanation below the tables.  And see a longer explanation
  in BMW Board message 27893.

Selected on: Manifest Quality > 65; BMWm Expected Return >= 30%
  PAR less than MIPAR+15% (this week 9.6% + 15% = 24.6%), with
  at least 6 years of BMWm-type data.

Above the line = TMF CAPS rating >= 90%

* = RMS <= -1.5
+ = At least 16 Yrs of data, Stewardship = A|B, M* = 4|5, CAPS % >= 95

Tick  Yrs   Qual   PAR   QPZ    RMS    RF   CAPS  CAPS   P/E  M* Stew Fin  EPS
  				               %     #                Str  Pred
KSS    15   87.9  19.8  3.23  -1.13  1.70   91.3   104    16   3   C  90   85
WAG*   20   83.6  19.7  2.56  -1.87  1.74   93.5   169    20   5   B 100   99
LLTC*+ 16   78.9  22.8  2.53  -1.54  2.10   95.3    43    23   4   B  97   66
PAYX+  16   88.0  16.1  2.42  -1.25  1.79   97.2   106    29   4   A  96   86
HIBB   11   83.5  18.5  2.27  -0.93  1.33   94.1    17    20   -   -  85   94
MHP    20   86.7  14.7  1.91  -1.45  1.32   92.4    66    18   5   B  99   97
SYY*+  20   83.8  14.9  1.52  -2.14  1.54   96.1    77    21   4   B  94   93
MDT*+  25   79.4  16.7  1.25  -2.11  2.46   95.1   143    19   5   B  96  100
LNCR*  15   79.6  16.4  1.22  -2.27  1.84   90.9    22    14   3   C  76   85
ZMH*    6   72.9  20.6  1.14  -1.56  1.38   98.1   105    18   5   B  99   74
AEO*    6   75.6  18.4  1.06  -1.54  1.56   93.8   306    13   4   C  91   56
PEP*   30   88.1   9.2  0.90  -1.83  1.77   97.7   395    19   3   B 100   99
BRO*   10   79.1  14.1  0.63  -2.37  1.67   94.4    18    19   4   A  98   84
AIG*   20   73.6  17.3  0.51  -1.94  1.94   94.8   250    10   4   B  98   70
CL*    30   84.8   9.5  0.47  -2.62  2.70   98.6   145    25   3   B  98   99
SNV    16   75.1  16.0  0.45  -1.30  1.55   90.9    11    13   5   B  96   98
EXBD*   8   76.3  14.5  0.29  -1.90  1.48   92.2    77    35   4   C  94   80
CAH*   16   73.5  15.4  0.07  -1.69  1.74   95.7    70    32   4   C  90   86
AAP*    6   72.0  16.2  0.02  -1.63  1.32   93.8    16    15   5   B  57   56
QCOM   16   73.6  14.4 -0.14  -1.02  1.85   90.0   219    25   4   A  89   61
JNJ+   35   74.3  13.4 -0.25  -1.03  1.45   95.2  1018    18   5   B 100   99
CTAS*  16   74.2  13.4 -0.27  -1.96  1.81   92.3    13    18   5   A  96   99
OMC    16   71.4  11.5 -1.11  -0.96  1.49    100    16    19   3   B  91   96
BMS*   20   70.6  11.6 -1.21  -1.52  1.31   90.0    20    16   5   A  83   91
BUD*   20   71.3  10.3 -1.40  -1.79  1.40   91.0   233    20   3   A  92   95
WYE    25   73.1   8.5 -1.52  -1.25  1.45   90.5    63    15   3   C  83   98
VAR    16   68.2  11.3 -1.64  -1.12  1.36   98.6    71    27   3   B  90   89
AMGN*  20   66.0  12.7 -1.66  -1.81  2.60   91.6   323    16   5   D 100   88
DIS+   40   66.9  11.6 -1.77  -1.06  1.74   95.0   418    16   4   B  87   73
AVP*   25   68.1   8.0 -2.39  -2.29  2.08   92.7    41    32   4   B  80   75
==============================================================================
BBBY*  15   90.4  21.0  3.87  -2.71  2.49   85.0   147    16   5   D  98   89
CAKE*  15   79.6  23.6  2.82  -2.98  2.30   85.3    95    21   5   D  78   92
HOG*   20   87.4  18.1  2.77  -2.39  2.57   76.7   193    12   4   B  97   90
SPLS   16   87.9  17.1  2.63  -1.09  1.44   88.6    70    16   5   C  95   89
SBUX*  15   84.2  18.9  2.47  -2.69  1.73   81.3   705    32   5   B  91   96
FWRD   14   90.0  13.7  2.19  -1.06  1.54   88.5    26    19   5   B  87   78
LOW*   20   77.9  21.4  2.07  -2.67  2.20   83.9   242    14   5   B  99   92
MSFT   20   84.0  17.0  2.01  -0.81  1.69   89.4  1228    23   3   A  94   94
KNX*   13   87.7  11.8  1.42  -1.77  1.45   68.4    19    19   -   -  73   92
GCI*   20   79.1  17.3  1.34  -3.77  3.08   37.0    27     9   3   D  92   86
SLM*   16   76.5  18.9  1.30  -1.84  1.67   69.2    52    19   3   A  65   94
KSWS   17   77.1  18.1  1.22  -0.53  1.34   89.1    46    14   5   C  75   63
C      30   77.7  17.2  1.11  -0.84  1.46   80.2   514    10   5   B  99   96
MCO*    7   75.1  18.5  1.00  -4.50  1.86   83.2   119    14   5   B  83   89
NVR    22   74.4  18.6  0.92  -0.37  1.75   12.9   132     7   4   F  92   66
WFC    20   77.1  16.5  0.86  -1.47  1.44   80.1   196    13   4   B  96   83
WSM*   16   78.2  14.5  0.58  -1.80  1.98   88.5    26    18   4   B  83   76
WL*    16   76.9  14.5  0.39  -1.73  1.37   66.7     9    18   5   B  97   99
WFMI*  15   80.5  11.9  0.35  -1.53  1.55   89.1   612    36   5   B  87   69
TCB*   16   75.7  15.0  0.31  -2.49  1.99   60.0    15    11   5   A  66   90
POOL*  12   65.9  21.1  0.19  -4.78  3.18   67.3    49    14   -   -  55   92
EWBC*   8   76.6  13.8  0.18  -2.60  1.72   81.8    11    13   4   B  88   92
ROST   20   72.9  16.3  0.18  -1.38  1.69   88.9     9    15   4   C  98   87
AJG    20   72.4  16.4  0.13  -1.19  1.32   50.0    12    19   5   B  90   82
AVY*   20   73.3  15.1 -0.03  -1.53  1.51   75.0    16    16   4   B  91   91
MER    30   66.4  18.9 -0.22  -1.24  1.62   64.7   201     7   4   B  96   66
FDO*   20   71.0  15.5 -0.28  -2.63  2.89   78.6    28    16   4   B  90   94
WMT*   35   75.1  12.7 -0.29  -2.62  6.00   71.5   491    15   5   B  96   99
FITB*  16   68.1  16.9 -0.41  -2.75  3.21   27.8    54    14   5   B  85   82
BBT*   16   66.4  17.9 -0.44  -1.64  1.61   78.9    38    13   5   C  96   84
DBD    25   71.5  13.0 -0.77  -1.29  1.44   87.5     8    40   5   B  53   87
SCSS    9   67.2  15.8 -0.79  -1.07  2.43   87.2   893    16   -   -  97   49
ZION   16   69.5  14.2 -0.80  -1.49  1.77   75.0    16    11   5   C  91   97
ASBC*  20   72.0  12.3 -0.85  -2.03  1.42   45.5    11    13   5   B  94   96
TJX    16   69.3  13.0 -1.10  -1.13  1.53   85.3    34    20   3   B  94   94
CMA    16   67.7  13.7 -1.18  -1.47  1.61   39.1    23    10   5   B  94   87
LLY*   25   69.8  12.3 -1.18  -1.80  2.08   87.0    77    26   4   B  97   96
MTB*   16   69.2  12.2 -1.29  -2.47  1.57   42.3    26    14   4   A  98   96
HAR    16   66.5  13.2 -1.48  -0.99  1.38   88.5    26    18   -   -  88   68

-----

Key to column headings

Yrs = # of years of BMWm-type data available for this firm
Qual = The firm's Quality rating calculated by Manifest
PAR  = The firm's Projected Annual Return calculated by Manifest
QPZ = the sum of Z-scores I've calculated for Qual and for PAR.
RMS = RMS data from mklein9, otherwise from sheridan03's screening tool
RF = BMW Return Factor from mklein9, otherwise from sheridan03's screener
CAPS% = % of TMF CAPS "All-Stars" who rate this stock to beat the S&P 500
CAPS # = The number of TMF CAPS "All-Stars" who have rated this stock
P/E = P/E from Morningstar (as of most recent Friday's close) 
M* = Morningstar's overall rating of the firm (1 to 5, worst to best)
Stew = Morningstar's "stewardship" rating of firm's management (A to D)
Fin Str = Manifest's rating of the firm's Financial Strength (0 to 100)
EPS Pred = Manifest's rating of the firm's EPS predictability (5 to 100)

Other mysteries explained:

MIPAR = Manifest's lingo for the current median PAR value for all
stocks in Manifest's database; I discard stocks with a PAR greater
than MIPAR+15% because I consider such PAR values not credible.

For a more detailed explanation, see message 27893 on the BMW Board.

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