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Subject:  Re: S&P 500 Returns for Next 3 Years Date:  4/1/2008  8:13 PM
Author:  hheiserman Number:  1484 of 1817

Click here

then click the link in this paragraph:

One can access an Excel file with the data set (used and described in the book) on stock prices, earnings, dividends and interest rates since 1871, updated.

Prof. Shiller last updated this spreadsheet in 2006. To create the chart in my Real Money article, I downloaded Prof. Shiller's spreadsheet onto my computer, then updated his data through March 2008.

The key point in my column is that the S&P 500's real 10-year P/E is 23x. This is an extreme valuation, based on 130 years of market history. Indeed, there are just three other times when the market was this expensive, not including the current period:

In June 1901 the market peaked at 239 and the real 10-year PE was 25x. 19.5 years later, in Dec. 1920, the market troughed at 74. The new PE was just 5x, and the market's CAGR during this period was -6%.

In Sept. 1929 the market peaked at 383 and the real 10-year PE was 33x. Almost four years later, in Jun. 1932, the market troughed at 74 (same as Dec. 1920, above). The new PE was 6x, and the market's CAGR during this period was -36%.

In Dec. 1968 the market peaked at 635 and the real 10-year PE was 22x. Almost 14years later, in Jul. 1982, the market troughed at 238. The new PE was 7x, and the market's CAGR during this period was -7%.

The stock market is going to be a tough place to make money for the next several years, if history is a guide.

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