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Subject: Re: Cramers Game Plan  Date: 9/20/2008 11:13 AM  
Author: Starrob  Number: 243 of 5166  
Cramer is a nutcase but sometimes I learn from him. He is my random factor that is in the market.....sometimes you don't know which way he is going to explode.....random factor.....sort of like the Joker in Batman: http://www.imeem.com/johnrehnald/music/1b2cSQeb/the_joker_wh... I always use that to remind myself that a random factor in every prediction: "In finance The random walk hypothesis considers that asset prices in an organized market evolve at random. Other so called random factors intervene in trends and patterns to do with Supply and Demand distributions. As well as this, the random factor of the environment itself results in fluctuations in stock and broker markets. Randomness versus unpredictability Randomness is an objective property. Nevertheless, what appears random to one observer may not appear random to another observer. Consider two observers of a sequence of bits, only one of whom has the cryptographic key needed to turn the sequence of bits into a readable message. The message is not random, but is unpredictable for one of the observers. One of the intriguing aspects of random processes is that it is hard to know whether the process is truly random. The observer can always suspect that there is some "key" that unlocks the message. This is one of the foundations of superstition and is also what is a driving motive, curiosity, for discovery in science and mathematics. Under the cosmological hypothesis of determinism there is no randomness in the universe, only unpredictability, since there is only one possible outcome to all events in the universe. No event under determinism can be defined as having probability since again there is only one universal outcome. Some mathematically defined sequences, such as the decimals of pi, exhibit some of the same characteristics as random sequences, but because they are generated by a describable mechanism they are called pseudorandom. To an observer who does not know the mechanism, a pseudorandom sequence is unpredictable. Chaotic systems are unpredictable in practice due to their extreme dependence on initial conditions. Whether or not they are unpredictable in terms of computability theory is a subject of current research. At least in some disciplines of computability theory the notion of randomness turns out to be identified with computational unpredictability. Randomness of a phenomenon is not itself 'random'. It can often be precisely characterized, usually in terms of probability or expected value. For instance quantum mechanics allows a very precise calculation of the halflives of atoms even though the process of atomic decay is a random one. More simply, though we cannot predict the outcome of a single toss of a fair coin, we can characterize its general behavior by saying that if a large number of tosses are made, roughly half of them will show up "Heads". Ohm's law and the kinetic theory of gases are precise characterizations of macroscopic phenomena which are random on the microscopic level." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomness Rob S 

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