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Motley Fool Global Gains / GGM: Global Gains Philosophy

URL:  https://boards.fool.com/quotin-that-case-the-trajectory-of-stcok-27013791.aspx

Subject:  Re: Cramers Game Plan Date:  9/21/2008  12:35 PM
Author:  Starrob Number:  257 of 5166

"In that case, the trajectory of stcok indices over the past 100 years appear random to you?

Randomness can be detected using multivariate analysis. You have to be very careful when using the word 'random'. "


Yes, it can depending on what point of view you take on it.

Multivariate analysis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multivariate_analysis can determine what appears to some observers as random. I question whether it can detect it 100% which is in effect saying the system is infallible.

My feelings on infallibility is this...I have yet to find a infallible system. All systems or ways of thought or scientific analysis seemingly breaks down under the right conditions and time frames, as far as I have been able to observe. Other people may observe different things or believe 100% in the concept of infallibility but not me.

So, yes...I do believe the stock markets movements could be considered random.

Interesting read:


http://www.deepleafproductions.com/wilsonlibrary/texts/raw-t...
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