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Subject:  This Week in CAPS #4 (w/b 2/16/09) Date:  2/23/2009  12:19 PM
Author:  TMFEldrehad Number:  163 of 502

Is it Monday again already?

For those of you just tuning in, lately I've been doing a weekly examination of the goings-on in CAPS-land (focusing, so far, on what the Top Ten rated CAPS participants have been up to) to see if there's anything interesting or insightful we might be able to learn.

Like past weeks, I think it important to go back and review some of the activity from the past and see how our Top Ten did. That said, however, I don't want this to turn into a 'week by week' scorecard (as I think that would get pretty boring pretty quickly).

What I'd like to do, is skip the review of Week #3 data and go back to Week #2 as I personally found that particular group of calls far more interesting.

You may recall this from Week #2:

What was surprising to yours truly were the number of banks/financials that made this list. We also have more than one Top Ten participant weighing in bullishly in this space, as BAC and C were given the thumbs-up by StatsGeek and HBAN, IKM, YAVY, and GBNK were picked by BravoBevo. Have banks turned the corner? Or are our Top Ten simply calling a short-term bounce based on happenings in the political arena?

And as you may also recall, after one week our Top Ten weren't doing so well regarding the financials... here are the results (in terms of the call's CAPS score) from a week ago:


BAC -7.87
C -2.19
HBAN -4.43
IKM +2.04
YAVY -10.68
GBNK -6.72


And the results as of this writing:


BAC -24.01
C -34.09
HBAN -26.73
IKM +2.04
YAVY -27.00
GBNK -2.33


Ouch! At least in the short-term it looks like the group of bullish calls on banks/financials seemed not to work out for the Top Ten members who made those calls. To be fair, it has been only a couple of weeks -- furthermore, only one of the above picks has been ended (meaning that we can infer that the Top Ten participant making the call still believes there's a chance things will turn around) -- but either way things haven't been looking good here despite some pretty big gains today in a couple of these investments.

While I plan on keeping track of these calls (at least off and on) as we move forward - after all, goings-on in the financial sector impact us all - for this week I think I'd like to take the focus off of the Top Ten participants and cast our net a bit wider.

For those of you who might not know, CAPS has this neat feature called tags. Tags are basically groupings of stocks/investments and can range from 'Ticker is a boy' (where the ticker symbol spells out a boy's name, like SAM), to geographical locations (like China or Omaha), to industry/sector. Looking at the Top Tens list (by clicking the appropriate tab on the blue border at the top of any CAPS page), one can see that as of this writing the Top Ten tags currently are:

Norway
Denmark
Electricity Supplier/Distributor
Beverages - Brewers
Taiwan
Specialty Alloys
Industrial Equipment Wholesale
Aluminum
Industrial Metals & Minerals
Zinc

The first thing that jumps out at me by looking at this list is how many industrial metal-related tags there are - Aluminum, Industrial Metals & Minerals, and Zinc. Scandanavia seems farily well-represented too, given its overall small geographic size.

Focusing on the industrial metals, though, brings to mind one of the observations made during our first installment of This Week in CAPS:

As for the thumbs-up (outperform) calls, while we didn't have any duplicates among new calls by the Top Ten this week, I do see what appears might be a bit of a theme. Consider the following thumbs-up calls:


DXO (Crude oil - long) by TDRH
TCK (Zinc, minerals) by StatsGeek
UNG (Natural Gas) by GoldminingXpert
USU (Uranium) by GoldminingXpert


It appears as though three of the Top Ten seemed to think that hard assets, and more specifically, natural resources, made good thumbs-up calls in the past week.


It would appear that this sentiment extends well beyond just our Top Ten participants and into the CAPS community at large. Additionally, you probably already know that iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is a recent addition to the Pro portfolio - and while silver itself didn't make the top ten tags list, one can't help but notice the similarities as it is yet another industrial metal with broad industrial applications.

Regards,

Russell (a.k.a. TMFEldrehad)
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